本文选取我国30个省份1990年—2016年的面板数据,运用VAR回归分析方法对新常态下我国产业结构升级的影响因素进行了分析,结果显示,财政支出因子和经济贸易因子对产业结构高级化的影响效应比较大,但不显著;而人口因子的影响效应虽小,但更显著。具体表现:一是财政支出因子短期内能够促进产业结构升级,而长期不利于产业结构升级;二是我国人口因子短期内能够为产业结构升级作贡献,但若得不到进一步改善,将会成为我国产业结构持续升级的短板;三是经济贸易因子短期内能够为产业转型升级提供基础,但不利于其持续升级。基于此,本文提出应深化供给侧结构性改革、更好地发挥政府作用、培养一批高新技术服务人才、加快构建企业+政府+社会的社会保障体系、鼓励出口转型升级等对策建议。
This paper made an analysis of the Panel VAR regression of the panel data of China's 30 provinces from 1990 to 2016. The results show that Fiscal Expenditure Factors and Economic & Trade Factors have a greater effect on the Industrial Structure Upgrade,but the effects of population factors are more significant. The result is that,First,the fiscal expenditure factor can promote the Industrial Structure Upgrade in the short term, but it is not conducive to the Industrial Structure Upgrade in the long term;Second,China's population factor can contribute to the Industrial Structure Upgrade in the short term, but if have not further improvement,will become the Obstruct of the continuation of China's Industrial Structure Upgrade;Third,the factor of the Economic & Trade can provide the basis for the Industrial Structure Upgrade in the short term,but it is not conducive to the continuous of the Industrial Structure Upgrade. So, this paper proposes that should strengthen structural reform of the supply,the better play the role of the government, cultivate high-tech service personnel, speed up the construction of the social security system by enterprise, government and social and encourage export transformation and upgrading.
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