根据已有文献,本文将房地产业对经济增长的贡献分为直接贡献和间接贡献。基于此,本文首先利用增长值法测算了2005年—2014年新疆房地产业对经济增长的直接贡献率为3.67%;再用2002年、2007年和2012年新疆的投入产出表测算出新疆房地产业对其他41个产业的带动效应来修正各年房地产业对经济增长的直接贡献率,从而得出2006年—2014年新疆房地产业对经济增长的间接贡献率为5.91%;最后根据其直接贡献率和间接贡献率测算出2006年—2014年新疆房地产业对经济增长的总贡献率为9.59%,并与西北其他四省区进行了比较分析。最后利用VAR模型就新疆房地产业的贡献率与GDP之间的关系进行了实证分析,得出新疆GDP的增长显著推动了新疆房地产投资额、销售额和产值的增长,但新疆房地产投资额、销售额和产值的增长对新疆GDP的带动作用却很小,但统计显著。为此,应加快新疆城市化建设步伐,高度重视房地产业的健康有序发展及与房地产业相关的各个产业的协调、良性发展,充分发挥房地产业对新疆经济的带动作用,促进国民经济的健康稳定发展。

According to the existing literature,According to the existing literature, this paper divides the contribution of the real estate industry to economic growth into direct and indirect one. Based on this, the paper uses growth method to measure the direct contribution to economic growth in the real estate industry in Xinjiang from 2005 to 2014 and the rate is 3.67%.And then, the input-output table of Xinjiang in 2002, 2007 and 2012 is used to calculate the driving effect of the real estate industry in Xinjiang on the other 41 industries to correct the real estate directly the contribution rate of economic growth, therefore, the indirect contribution rate of the Xinjiang real estate industry to the economic growth from 2006 to 2014 is got and the rate is 5.91%.Finally, according to the rate of the direct contribution and the indirect contribution rate, the total contribution rate to the economic growth of the real estate industry in Xinjiang from 2006 to 2014, is estimated, and the rate is 9.59%,and it is analyzed with other four northwest provinces in China. Finally, the VAR model is used to analyze empirically the relationship between contribution rate of Xinjiang real estate industry and GDP.The results show that the GDP growth in Xinjiang significantly promotes growth of the amount of investment,sales and production of real estate in Xinjiang, however, amount, their promotion influence is small on the GDP growth in Xjiang,but statistically significant.Therefore, it is of necessity to speed up the pace of urban construction in Xinjiang, attach great importance to the healthy and orderly development of real estate and coordinated ahd healthy development between the real estate industry and other related industries to give full play to the driving role of the real estate industry to economic development in Xinjiang to promote the healthy and stable development of national economy.