工业制成品在中哈贸易中的占比越来越大,中国对哈萨克斯坦高技术含量工业制成品出口在总量和种类上都实现了迅速发展。本文通过构建贸易引力模型对中国高技术含量工业制成品出口哈萨克斯坦的潜力进行实证研究,在此基础上通过脉冲响应分析找出贸易潜力的影响因素。结果表明:双方经济规模、哈国贸易自由度、高技术含量工业制成品消费价格指数对出口潜力有显著的促进作用;高技术含量工业制成品生产成本对贸易潜力有显著的抑制作用。且1996年—2015年中国对哈国高技术含量工业制成品出口潜力保持“潜力开拓型”和“潜力巨大型”,中哈双方经济稳定增长、中哈投资合作为双方工业制成品贸易发展奠定了良好的基础;此外,“丝绸之路经济带”建设也使中国对哈国工业制成品出口潜力之大前所未有。
Industrial manufactured goods plays an increasingly important role in trade between China and Kazakhstan, high technological manufactured goods have developed fast on quality and quantity. This paper makes an empirical analysis of trade potential of industrial manufactured goods between China and Kazakhstan by constructing a trade gravity model and based on this, finds the influential factors of trade potential through impulse response. The results show that both sides’scale of economy, Kazakhstan trade freedom and, CI of high tech industrial manufactured goods have a remarkable boost effect on export potential; production cost of high tech industrial manufactured goods, however, has a notable restrain impact. The export potential keeps either developing or great from 1996 to 2015, and the stable growth of economy and invest cooperation establish a favorable foundation to develop trade between China and Kazakhstan. In addition, “the Silk Road Economic Belt”also brings enormous opportunities to export China’s manufactured goods to Kazakhstan.
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