本文在传统MRW模型的基础之上引入了经济开放程度、市场化程度以及基础设施建设水平等三个控制变量,构建了扩展MRW模型。借助MATLAB软件对中国1992年—2016年区域经济增长的收敛性进行测算分析。研究结果表明:中国各省区人均GDP的空间分布存在正向空间自相关以及显著的空间异质性。从长期看中国区域经济增长存在条件收敛,收敛速度为3.46%,已有的研究确实存在经济增长速度被高估的现象。劳动人口增长率、经济开放度、人力资本储蓄率以及物质资本储蓄率等都与中国人均GDP增长存在显著的空间正相关关系;与此同时,政府消费占GDP比重过高、基础设施重复建设都对经济增长具有明显的负向作用。因此在制定相关政策时,应当考虑区域之间的空间溢出效应,在促进资源要素优化配置的同时重视人力资本的培养,以缩小区域经济差距,实现区域协调发展。
On the basis of the traditional MRW model, this paper introduces three control variables, such as the degree of economic openness, the degree of marketization and the level of infrastructure construction, and constructs the extended MRW model. With the help of MATLAB software, the convergence of China’s regional economic growth in the past 1992-2016 years is calculated and analyzed. The results show that there exists positive spatial autocorrelation and significant spatial heterogeneity in the spatial distribution of per capita GDP in China’s provinces. In the long run, China’s regional economic growth is conditional convergence with a convergence rate of 3.46%. There is a significant spatial positive correlation between the growth rate of labor population, economic openness, the rate of human capital savings and the rate of material capital savings, such as the growth of China’s per capita GDP. At the same time, government consumption accounts for a high proportion of GDP and infrastructure construction has a negative effect on economic growth.
[1]Baumol W.J..Productivity Growth,Convergence,and Welfare:What the Long-Run Data Show[J].American Economic Review,1986,76(5):1072-1085.
[2]Barro R.J.,Salai Martin X..Regional Growth and Migration:a Japan-United States Comparison.[J].J.Jpn Int Econ,1992,6(4):312-346.
[3]Neven D.,Gouyette C..European Integration and Regional Growth[J].Revue éConomique,1994,45(3):703-713.
[4]Delgado M.,Porter M.E.,Stern S..Clusters,Convergence,and Economic Performance[J].Research Policy,2014,43(10):1785-1799.
[5]Barro R.J..Economic Growth and Convergence,Applied to China[J].China & World Economy,2016,24(5):5-19.
[6]Juknys R.,Liobikien G.,Dagiliūt R..Sustainability of Economic Growth and Convergence in Regions of Different Developmental Stages[J].Sustainable Development,2017,25(4): 276-287.
[7]Christensen P.,Gillingham K.,Nordhaus W..Uncertainty in Forecasts of Long-run Economic Growth[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,2018,115(21):5409-5414.
[8]林毅夫,刘培林.中国的经济发展战略与地区收入差距[J].经济研究,2003(3):19-25.
[9]彭国华.中国地区收入差距、全要素生产率及其收敛分析[J].经济研究,2005(9):19-29.
[10]张晓旭,冯宗宪.中国人均GDP的空间相关与地区收敛:1978—2003[J].经济学,2008,7(2):399-414.
[11]孙亚男,杨名彦,崔蓉,肖彩霞.“一带一路”沿线国家全要素生产率的俱乐部收敛及其动态演进:兼论“六大经济走廊”框架在缩小国家间经济差距中的作用[J].世界经济研究,2018(8):99-111+137.
[12]张萌.东盟“10+3”适合建立最优货币区吗?——基于改进的区域经济收敛模型的研究[J].南方金融,2018(2):59-68.
[13]Ahmad M.,Hall S. G..Economic Growth and Convergence: Do Institutional Proximity and Spillovers matter?[J].Journal of Policy Modeling,2017,39(6): 1065-1085.
[14]张健华,王鹏.中国全要素生产率:基于分省份资本折旧率的再估计[J].管理世界,2012(10):18-30+187.
[15]黄玖立,李坤望,晓鸥.出口开放、地区市场规模和经济增长[J].经济研究,2006(6):27-38.
[16]徐现祥,李郇.中国城市经济增长的趋同分析[J].经济研究,2004(5):40-48.
[17]吴玉鸣,徐建华.中国区域经济增长集聚的空间统计分析[J].地理科学,2004,24(6):654-659.
[18]郑文升,姜玉培,卓蓉蓉,等.安徽省县际经济联系网络结构演变及影响因素[J].地理科学,2016,36(2):265-273.
[19]陈高,张行.区域金融发展与经济收敛的空间计量分析[J].统计与决策,2014(23):127-131.
[20]Ordover J.,Baumol W..Antitrust Policy and High-Technology Industries[J].Oxford Review of Economic Policy,1988,4(4):13-34.
[21]Chen L.L.,Choi S.,Devereux J..Have Absolute Price Levels Converged for Developed Economies? The Evidence since 1870[J].Review of Economics & Statistics,2008,90(1):29-36.
