新疆的发展历来受到中央的高度关注,19省市对口援疆政策的实施效果如何关系到党和国家推动社会全面进步工作的进程。本文就2010年开始实施新一轮对口援疆工作以来取得的经济效果、存在的问题及原因进行了分析。首先,采用DID分析方法,选取新疆15个地州市的数据,通过对面板数据的有效性分析得出:19省市对口援疆政策对新疆的GDP增长效应为3.1%,投资对GDP的回归不显著,以农业占GDP的比重为代表的产业结构的回归系数为负值,说明应当缩减第一产业的比重,改善产业结构。而人口的系数为0.1%,说明人口增长并未对新疆经济产生明显的促进作用。其次,综合分析了援疆工作中存在的问题及原因。最后提出了包括创新援疆模式、创新援疆机制、调整产业结构等建议。
The development of Xinjiang has always got heightened attention from the central government of china. The effect of paring assistance of 19 provinces and cities to Xinjiang is of great concern for the process of promoting the all-round development of people and social progress.This paper analyzes economic effects, problems and their causesof paring assistance policy since 2010. Firstly, by selecting the data from 15 prefectures and regions and analyzing the panel data with the new method called DID, itdraws the conclusion that the effects of the policy on Xinjiang's GDP growth is 3.1%, the return of investment to GDP is not significant,the regression coefficient of industrial structure represented by agriculture as the proportion of GDP is negative, which means we should reduce the proportion of primary industry and improve the industrial structure. But, the regression coefficient of population is only 0.1%, which means the growth of population does not significantly contribute to Xinjiang's economy. This problem is studied from the qualitative and quantitative perspective. Secondly, the existing problems and the related reasons during the pair assistance are analyzed comprehensively. At the end of this paper, it proposes some suggestions such as innovating the aid mode, mechanism and adjusting industrial structure.
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