本文以协同学理论为基础,将现代物流业与制造业视为复合系统,构建二者评价指标体系和CRITIC复合系统协同度模型,选取新疆2006年—2015年数据进行实证分析。研究表明:新疆现代物流业有序度呈逐年上升趋势,制造业有序度呈波动上升趋势,复合系统协同度呈现增减交替的M型发展趋势,整体发展缓慢;通过敏感度分析发现,本文所选四个投入型序参量增加或减少10%均会明显影响复合系统协同度大小,复合系统协同度对城镇物流业从业人员数最为敏感,其次为公路通车里程,对载货汽车保有量敏感性最弱。最后,结合分析结果提出促进二者协同发展的建议。

This paper, based on synergetic theory, regards modern logistics and manufacturing as a composite system, constructs the Evaluation Index System and CRITIC Complex System Coordination Model, selects the data from 2006 to 2015 in Xinjiang to make an empirical analysis. And the results show: the degree of order of Xinjiang modern logistics industry is increasing. The degree of order of Xinjiang manufacturing is showed a rising trend. The coordination degree of compound system is showing M-type development trend, but the overall development is slow. Sensitivity analysis finds: the input parameter increasing or decreasing by 10% will significantly affect the size of the complex system. The coordination degree of compound system is the most sensitive to the number of employees in the urban logistics industry, the second sensitive to the mileage of the highway, is the least sensitive to the maintenance of the truck. This paper presents recommendations for promoting synergistic development.