中国与哈萨克斯坦都是农业大国,分析中国与哈萨克斯农产品贸易增长路径,对扩大出口规模,加深两国农业合作有重要意义。本文在分析中国与哈萨克斯坦农产品贸易特征的基础上,从三元边际的角度分析了扩展边际、价格边际、数量边际对中哈两国双边农产品出口增长的贡献。研究表明:中国对哈萨克斯坦农产品出口的扩展边际保持在较高水平,价格边际持续增长,数量边际呈现“增降交替”趋势,其出口增长主要源自数量增加;哈萨克斯坦对中国农产品出口的扩展边际大幅提高,价格边际和数量边际分别呈“W型”和“倒V型”的变化趋势,出口增长主要源自种类扩展。因此,中哈两国应积极扩大农产品出口种类和数量,加快中国农业“走出去”步伐,推动双边农产品贸易高质量发展。

Both China and Kazakhstan are large agricultural countries. It is of great significance to analyze the growth path of agricultural trade between China and Kazakhstan to expand export scale and deepen agricultural cooperation. Based on CEPII Database 2008-2017 Trade data of agricultural products between China and Kazakhstan, this paper measures the contribution of expansion margin, price margin and quantity margin to the growth of bilateral agricultural exports. The results show that the expansion margin of China's agricultural exports to Kazakhstan remains at a high level, the price margin keeps increasing, and the quantity margin shows the trend of "increasing and decreasing alternately". The expansion margin of Kazakhstan's export of agricultural products to China has increased significantly, and the price margin and quantity margin show the trend of "W" and "inverted V" respectively. Its export growth is mainly due to the expansion of categories. Therefore, China and Kazakhstan should actively expand the types and quantity of agricultural products exported, accelerate the pace of "going global" in Chinese agriculture and promote high-quality development of bilateral agricultural trade.