资本市场存在羊群效应将会造成资金的过于集中,这不仅会使其丧失原有的融资功能,还会增加市场波动的隐患。本文从行为金融学的视角对基金管理人的市场羊群效应建立动态演化博弈模型进行分析,得出:在同行业内消息探听成本偏低时,进行投资决策并先行动的管理人将在花费较高成本获取相关信息时取得较大收益;而后行动的管理人只需观测前者的信号并选择跟随即可获得最大收益。该结论符合市场事实,但却不利于市场的平稳发展。因此,为避免市场中明显存在羊群效应,本文提出了相应的行业治理建议,以促进未来基金行业的健康发展。
Herding capital market presence will cause excessive concentration of funds,which not only will make it lose the original financing function,but will lncrease market volatility risks.From the perspective of behavioral finance,this paper establishes a dynamic evolutionary game for the fund manager’s market herd behavior.According to the analysis,when the cost of information snooping in the industry is low,managers who make investment decisions and act first will obtain greater benefits when they spend relatively high costs to obtain relevant information.The trail manager only needs to observe the former's signal and choose to follow to get the maximum benefit.The conclusion is in line with market facts but it is not conducive to the stable development of the market.Therefore,based on the model results,in order to avoid the obvious existence of herd behaviors in the market for the analysis of the fund industry,the paper provides corresponding suggestions for the healthy development of the fund industry in the future industry governance recommendations.
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