目前构建失业预警模型主要基于扩散指数法,但鉴于传统扩散指数法的缺陷,由此确定的失业“预警线”的实际预警效果并不理想。因此,本文基于优化的扩散指数法构建失业预警模型并进行回归分析,认为目前我国的失业状况并未出现警情,但失业率扩散指数呈现的上升趋势需要高度重视,据此提出了“合理调整投资结构、加大重点领域投资力度、提高投资效率”和“提高居民收入水平、积极鼓励创新创业、促进居民消费升级”两条防范失业警情出现的基本路径。
The early-warning model of unemployment has been constructed based on diffusion index method nowadays, but limited by the defect of traditional diffusion index method, the actual unemployment warning effect of the determined “line” is not ideal. Therefore, the paper builds the unemployed early-warning model based on the optimization of the diffusion index method, and holds the conclusion that our country did not appear alarm in the present, but it needs to attach great importance to the fact that unemployment rate diffusion index showed a rise trend. So accordingly puts forward two basic path against unemployed early-warning, the one is adjusting reasonably the investment structure, increasing investment in key areas and improving the efficiency of investment, and the other is improving the residents’ income level, encouraging actively innovation and entrepreneurship, promoting the Consumption upgrade.
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