本文在借鉴国内外学者己有研究成果的基础上,借助新疆2003年—2013年克强指数相关指标的季度数据,运用非参数回归模型和对数线性回归模型进行建模,预测新疆工业增加值的变化,进而预测新疆工业增加值对新疆宏观经济发展的影响。结果表明,通过克强指数相关指标建立的模型可以及时快速地反映出工业经济变化,且这些模型对工业增加值的预测有很好的效果。

Based on the existing research achievements of scholars at home and abroad, this paper, with the quarterly data from 2003—2013 parameters related to Keqiang Index in Xinjiang as the object of study, using the nonparametric regression model and log-linear regression model to model, predicts the change of industrial added value, as well as the influence of industrial added value on macroeconomic development. The result shows that the model built on the basis of relevant parameters of Keqiang Index can reflect industrial economic changes rapidly, and forecast effects towards industrial added value by using these models are pretty good.