本文基于新疆农户家庭实地调研数据,选取部分可观测的Bivariate Probit模型并引入附有虚拟变量的Linear Regression模型,对农户家庭所承受的信贷配给程度及该信贷配给对农户家庭配置金融资产所产生的影响效应进行了有效估算。结果表明:新疆地区受到信贷配给的农户占67.4%,其中,受到完全配给的农户占43.1%,受到部分配给的农户占24.3%;完全信贷配给对家庭金融资产产生显著影响,表现在完全信贷配给使得农户家庭手持现金增加了1758元,家庭手持现金与储蓄的比值上升了5.45%。为此,本文得出了降低农户信贷配给、优化农村金融制度的启示。
Based on the survey data of rural households in Xinjiang, and by using the partially observable Bivariate Probit model and the linear regression model with dummy variable, this paper estimates the extent of credit rationing of rural households and its impact on rural households financial assets. The research results show that 67.4% of the rural households have credit rationing, 43.1% of which receive full credit rationing, 24.3% of which receive some of credit rationing; The complete credit rationing have a significant impact on household financial assets, which suggests that the complete credit rationing make rural households cash increase 1758 Yuan, make the ratio of rural households cash and savings rise 5.45%. Finally, according to the empirical research conclusions, the paper puts forward some policy implications including reducing farmers' credit rationing, optimizing the rural financial system and so on.
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