新冠肺炎疫情在俄罗斯的快速发展和长期化趋势给其本已脆弱的经济增长带来严重的负面冲击。不仅使俄罗斯“突破性增长”和“投资新周期”计划被迫搁置,而且抗疫反危机措施消耗的巨量财政金融资源将俄罗斯经济的短期风险提升到了相当高的水平。疫情导致的国内经济停顿、居民消费储蓄倾向改变以及疫情长期化背景下能源行情持续低迷,使得俄罗斯经济增长面临长期停滞和“僵尸化”风险。俄罗斯现有的区域国际经济合作战略无助于经济复苏,要走出经济停滞困境,还需投资、消费、出口领域的动力结构发生根本性变革,其中更加开放包容的国际经贸合作对俄罗斯经济增长至关重要。

The rapid development and long-term trend of COVID-19 in Russia has had a serious negative impact on its already fragile economic growth. Not only have Russia's plans for "breakthrough growth" and "new investment cycle" been put on hold, but the huge amount of financial resources consumed by anti-epidemic and anti-crisis measures has raised the short-term risks of the Russian economy to a very high level. As a result of the outbreak, the domestic economy stopped, the tendency of household consumption and savings changed, and the energy market remained sluggish in the long-term context of the outbreak, Russian economic growth faced the risk of long-term stagnation and"zombification". Russia's current strategy of regional and international economic cooperation is not conducive to economic recovery and the country needs a fundamental change in the dynamic structure of investment, consumption and export, among which more open and inclusive international economic and trade cooperation is crucial to Russia's economic growth.