新时代背景下中国开展“一带一路”能源国际合作,积极发展天然气贸易对打造能源利益共同体、责任共同体和命运共同体具有重要的推动作用。本文采用时变随机前沿引力模型实证分析影响中国天然气进口的因素,测度天然气进口贸易效率及潜力。研究表明：自然因素中,经济发展水平、人口规模、天然气管道的正式运营对天然气进口贸易有较大影响,地理距离、内陆国家等因素对提高天然气进口贸易效率的阻碍作用较弱。人为因素中,是否为“一带一路”沿线国家、投资自由度和金融自由度是影响中国天然气进口的关键因素。此外,中国与主要天然气进口国贸易效率总体水平较高,但与阿尔及利亚等国家的天然气进口贸易仍有较大的贸易潜力和贸易拓展空间。因此,应在加快能源创新步伐、提升贸易主导权的同时采取差异化贸易策略,以提高与“一带一路”沿线国家的天然气贸易效率和潜力。
In the context of the new era, China is carrying out international energy cooperation under the Background of "the Belt and Road" initiative. Natural gas trade plays an important role in building a community of energy interests, a community of responsibility and a common destiny. This paper uses a time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model to empirically analyze the factors that affect China's natural gas imports, and measure trade efficiency and potential. Studies have shown that among natural factors, the economic development level, population size, and the formal operation of natural gas pipelines have a positive effect on natural gas import trade, while factors such as geographical distance and landlocked countries have limited hindrance to the efficiency of natural gas import trade. Among the human factors, whether it is a country along "the Belt and Road", investment freedom and financial freedom are key factors affecting China's natural gas imports. The overall level of trade efficiency between China and major natural gas importing countries is relatively high, but with countries such as Algeria, it still has great trade potential and room for trade expansion. Therefore, it is proposed to accelerate the pace of energy innovation, establish a long-term trade mechanism while adopting a differentiated trade strategy to improve the efficiency and potential of natural gas trade with countries along the route.
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