为了反驳国际上关于中国藉由“一带一路”倡议致使沿线国家陷入“债务陷阱”的错误言论,本文收集和整理了24个沿线国家对中国负债的数据,发现以沿线国家对中国负债占GDP比重来衡量的负债规模较低,而且实证分析结果显示,这一负债指标与其经济增长呈正相关关系,表明从中国融资促进了沿线国家经济发展。从债务结构看,尽管沿线国家对中国负债占其总外债比重呈增长态势,但实证结果再次证实当前的债务结构同样促进了其经济增长,并且这一特征在高主权信用风险国家更加凸显。这些结论有助于我国进一步推动“一带一路”倡议,吸引沿线国家参与我国的“双循环”战略。
In order to refute the faulty statement that China has led the countries along "the Belt and Road" (CBR) into "debt trap", the debt data for the 24 CBR are collected. It is found that measured by the ratios of the debt of the CBR to China to their GDP, the average annual debt burden of CBR is so much low. And empirically, there exists positive correlations between loans from China and CBR's economic growth, which demonstrates that loans from China to the CBR has promoted their economic growth. At the same time, the debt structure of the CBR shows that although the ratios of the debt of the CBR to China in their total foreign debt is increasing, so far, such debt structures are also driving their economic growth. And such feature is more obvious in the countries with high sovereign credit risk. These conclusions will help China put forward the CBR further to abstract more countries joining to the "Dual Circulation" Strategy.
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