中国对“一带一路”沿线国家的直接投资风险较大,人民币汇率变动引起的经营风险是其中之一。本文选取“一带一路”沿线44个国家2003年—2018年的面板数据构建空间计量模型,运用stata15.0、matlab2018软件,实证检验人民币汇率对中国对外直接投资的影响。研究结果表明：人民币升值显著促进了中国对“一带一路”沿线国家的直接投资;东道国市场规模、开放水平与腐败控制程度是影响中国对外直接投资的重要因素;中国对沿线国家的直接投资存在空间相关性和正向的第三国效应。研究认为：中国企业应重视人民币汇率变动风险,合理使用避险工具。在对沿线国家投资时应考虑沿线国家的市场规模、开放水平与腐败控制程度,选择重点国家并制定适宜的投资方案;优化对沿线重点国家直接投资的空间布局,围绕重点产业实现对外直接投资的空间集聚,形成沿线国家产业链各环节的分工合作。
China's direct investment in countries along the "Belt and Road" is relatively risky, and operating risks caused by changes in the RMB exchange rate are one of them. This paper selects 44 countries along "the Belt and Road" to construct a spatial econometric model using panel data from 2003 to 2018, and uses stata15.0 and matlab2018 software to empirically test the impact of the RMB exchange rate on China' s OFDI. The results show that the appreciation of the renminbi significantly promotes China's OFDI in countries along the route; the size of the host country's market, the level of openness, and the degree of corruption control are important factors affecting China's OFDI; China's OFDI in countries along "the Belt and Road" is spatially related and there is a positive third country effect. The paper suggests that Chinese companies should pay attention to the risk of RMB exchange rate changes and reasonably use hedging tools; it is recommended to consider the market size, openness and corruption control levels of countries along the route, select key countries and formulate appropriate investment plans; optimize the space for key countries along the route layout, realize the spatial agglomeration of OFDI around key industries, and form the industrial chain cooperation of countries along the route.
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