随着“一带一路”倡议向纵深推进,沿线的地缘政治风险日益受到关注。本文基于文本数据分析法构建得到的GPR指数来揭示沿线代表性国家历年地缘政治风险的演变特征,进而运用生存分析方法对1996年—2018年中国与相关国家出口贸易联系的生存状况进行分析,在此基础上实证考察沿线地缘政治风险对中国出口贸易联系生存持续的影响。结果发现：“一带一路”沿线国家的地缘政治风险较高,且在样本考察期内的绝大多数年份均高于全球同期水平;中国与沿线代表性国家出口贸易联系的持续期较为短暂,其均值、中位数均不足本文观测期的一半;而且中国与沿线国家出口贸易联系的生存概率在建立初期较为低下,且呈现出明显的负时间依赖性和门槛特征;地缘政治风险的上升显著降低了中国与沿线国家出口贸易联系的生存持续。因此,应加强风险防范管控机制建设,并通过多元化、多层面治理方式来化解沿线地缘政治风险,以此促进中国与沿线国家出口贸易联系的持续、健康发展。

This paper employs the text-based GPR index to reveal the characteristics of geopolitical risks in representative countries along the "Belt and Road", and then uses the survival analysis method to analyze the survival duration of export relationships between China and representative countries over the period of 1996-2018. Based on the above analysis, we empirically test the impact of geopolitical risk on the survival duration of China's export relationships. The geopolitical risk of the "Belt and Road" is relatively high, and higher than the global level in the majority years of the sample period; The duration of export relationships between China and representative countries are relatively short, and their mean and median are less than half of the sample period. Besides, the survival probability of China's export relationships with countries along the "Belt and Road" is relatively low at the early stage, and exhibits significant negative time dependence and threshold characteristics; Geopolitical risks significantly reduced the survival duration of China's export relationships. Based on the above results, this paper argues that, the risk prevention and control mechanism should be strengthened, and the geopolitical risk in the B&R should be resolved through diversified and multi-faceted governance, and thus promote the sustained and healthy development of China's export relationships.