本文运用反事实分析法研究基础养老金全国统筹计发方案对养老保险基金跨省转移和财政负担的影响。研究发现：无论采用哪种计发方案,全国统筹通过跨省调剂基础养老金既调低了高收入省区市养老金待遇又提高了低收入省区市养老金待遇,这有助于缩小省际间养老金待遇差距。如果全国统筹计发方案消除省际差异以全国平均工资作为计发依据,那么养老保险基金跨省转移数额将最大,同时实施全国统筹的政策阻力最大,财政负担最重。因此,选取全国统筹最优计发方案既要让全国参保离退休人员共享经济发展成果,又要考虑养老金待遇省际差异。应通过权衡养老保险基金跨省转移金额、政策实施阻力和财政负担三方面因素来确定基础养老金全国统筹最优计发方案。

This paper uses counter-factual analysis to study the impact of national pooling basic pension on the redistribution of pension funds and the financial burden. The study found that no matter what kind of payment plan, the national pooling through the cross-provincial adjustment of basic pensions, not only reduces the pension benefits of high-income provinces but also increases the pension benefits of low-income provinces. If national pooling eliminates inter-provincial differences and uses the national average wage as the basis for calculating pension benefit. Then the amount of basic pensions transferred across provinces will be the largest. However the resistance of national pooling policy and the financial burden are also the heaviest. Therefore, the selection of the optimal payment plan must not only allow the insured to share the benefit of national economic development, but also consider the provincial differences in pension benefits. By weighing the amount of funds transferred across provinces, policy implementation resistance, and financial burdens, three factors are used to determine the optimal benefit plan.