本文基于2009年—2019年面板数据,采用碳排放系数法测算四大国家级城市群的碳排放总量及化石能源、二次能源和建筑材料碳排放量。结果显示：四大国家级城市群碳排放总量空间差异显著,长三角城市群峰值是2011年的9.67亿吨,关中平原城市群则是2019年的0.88亿吨。基于能源碳排放量的测算结果,进一步采用LMDI模型将其影响因素分解为碳排放系数、能源强度、能源结构、建筑业经济水平及人口规模等五大效应并分别进行测算。研究发现碳排放系数对能源碳排放量的影响作用最小,建筑业经济水平有明显的促进作用,而能源结构则有明显的抑制作用。今后可从推广新型建筑材料使用、优化建筑业能源结构及推广建筑业低碳节能技术等方面推进建筑业减碳。

Based on the panel data from 2009 to 2019, this paper used the carbon emission coefficient method to calculate the total carbon emissions of the four national-level urban agglomerations and the carbon emissions of fossil energy, secondary energy and building materials. The results show that there are significant spatial differences in the total carbon emissions of the four national urban agglomerations. The peak value of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration was 967 million tons in 2011, and that of the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration was 88 million tons in 2019. Based on the calculation results of energy carbon emissions, the LMDI model was further used to decompose the influencing factors into five major effects, including carbon emission coefficient, energy intensity, energy structure, economic level of construction industry and population size. It is found that the carbon emission coefficient has the least effect on the carbon emission of energy, the economic level of construction industry plays a promoting role, and the energy structure plays a restraining role. In the future, it is of significance to promote the use of new building materials, optimize the energy structure of the construction industry and promote low-carbon and energy-saving technology in the construction industry to promote carbon reduction.