文章基于2015年—2019年我国大陆31个省区市面板数据,以“双循环”为背景并将“双循环”相关因素作为中介变量,探究地方政府债务对产业结构优化的影响。研究发现：“双循环”背景下,地方政府债务对产业结构合理化有抑制作用,对产业结构高度化有促进作用。从产业结构合理化方面说,内循环层面变量居民消费结构、固定资产投资率、实际利率、技术水平和城市化率对地方政府债务影响产业结构合理化有显著的中介效应,外循环层面变量对外贸易水平和外商直接投资水平对地方政府债务影响产业结构合理化没有显著的中介效应;从产业结构高度化方面说,内循环层面变量技术水平、实际利率、城市化率,以及外循环层面变量外商直接投资水平均对地方政府债务影响产业结构高度化有显著的中介效应。今后应更科学地规划地方政府债务的支出投向,通过推动国内、国际市场资源合理配置、促进技术进步、提高城市化水平等途径,更好地推动产业结构优化升级。

Based on the panel data of 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities in mainland China from 2015 to 2019, this paper explores the impact of local government debt on industrial structure optimization with the background of "dual circulation" and the relevant factors of "dual circulation" as intermediary variables. The research finds that under the background of "dual circulation", local government debt has a restraining effect on the rationalization of industrial structure and a promoting effect on the upgrading of industrial structure. From the aspect of industrial structure rationalization, the variables of internal circulation level such as resident consumption structure, fixed asset investment rate, real interest rate, technology level and urbanization rate have a significant intermediary effect on the impact of local government debt on industrial structure rationalization, while the variables of external circulation level such as foreign trade level and foreign direct investment level have no significant intermediary effect on the impact of local government debt on industrial structure rationalization; From the aspect of industrial structure elevation, the internal circulation level variables, such as technology level, real interest rate, urbanization rate, and the external circulation level variables, foreign direct investment level, have a significant intermediary effect on the impact of local government debt on industrial structure elevation. In the future, it is of necessity to plan the expenditure direction of local government debt more scientifically, and better promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure by promoting the rational allocation of domestic and international market resources, promoting technological progress, and improving the level of urbanization.