相较于传统网络指标，将“依赖”概念引入棉花贸易网络研究中可以更准确地揭示棉花贸易特征。文章基于新的贸易依赖指标构建1999—2019年世界棉花贸易依赖网络，利用时态随机指数图模型对20年来核心棉花贸易国家的进口、出口贸易依赖网络进行分析，结果显示：（1）棉花进口依赖度提高的国家主要分布于亚洲地区，棉花贸易出口依赖较进口依赖网络集中度更高，其网络中心主要集中在欧美地区；（2）中国棉花进口依赖度的大幅提高表现为依赖对象多元化和依赖程度加深，出口依赖度的大幅降低主要源于低依赖国家的脱离；（3）棉花贸易依赖关系的形成具有三元传递特征，出口依赖关系的建立具有偏好连接特征，少数具有出口依赖的国家能够通过在网络中建立的优势地位进一步促进依赖关系的形成；（4）两国接壤关系和自由贸易协定交互属性能显著促进棉花贸易依赖关系的形成，但经济发展水平对依赖关系形成的影响具有异质性，相较于低收入国家，中等收入国家更易形成进口依赖，高收入国家同时倾向于形成进口、出口双向依赖。今后可以从深化国际贸易合作、优化棉花产业布局等角度出发，改善中国棉花贸易对外依赖形势。

Compared with the traditional network index, introducing the concept of "dependency" into the cotton trade network can reveal the characteristics of cotton trade more accurately. Based on the new trade dependence index, this paper constructs the 1999-2019 world cotton trade dependence network, analyzes the import and export trade dependence network of core trading countries in the past two decades, and uses temporal random index graph model to study. The results are as follows: (1) The countries with increased cotton import dependence are mainly distributed in Asia, and the network of export dependence is more concentrated than that of import dependence, and its network centers are mainly concentrated in Europe and America. (2) The rapid increase of China's cotton import dependence is reflected in the diversification of the dependent objects and the deepening of the dependence degree, and the sharp decline of export dependence is mainly due to the separation of low-dependent countries. (3) The formation of cotton trade dependence has the characteristics of ternary transmission, and the establishment of export dependence has the characteristics of "preference connection". A few countries with export dependence can further promote the formation of dependency through the dominant position established in the network. (4) Both the border relationship and the interactive nature of the free trade agreement between the two countries can significantly promote the formation of the cotton trade dependence relationship, but the economic level has a heterogeneous effect on the formation of the dependence relationship. Compared with low-income countries, middle-income countries are prone to import dependence, while high-income countries tend to form two-way import and export dependence. From the perspective of deepening international trade cooperation and optimizing the layout of the cotton industry, we can improve China's foreign dependence on cotton trade in the future.