国际原油市场与中国股票市场的波动溢出效应——基于滚窗VAR模型的测度
收稿日期: 2023-01-10
网络出版日期: 2023-09-07
基金资助
浙江省自然科学基金项目“国际原油市场与中国股票市场相关性研究——基于异质性视角”(LY18G010013)
The Fluctuation Spillover Effect Between the International Crude Oil Market and the Chinese Stock Market—Measurement Based on Rolling Window VAR Model
Received date: 2023-01-10
Online published: 2023-09-07
文章运用滚窗VAR模型测算了2011—2021年间布伦特原油指数与中国沪深300指数、11个一级行业指数之间的总波动溢出指数和净波动溢出指数,结合波动溢出指数的时变特征对国际原油市场与中国股票市场之间的波动溢出效应进行了研究。研究发现:整体来说两个市场间的波动溢出效应是比较小的。但是在市场危机时期,两个市场间的波动溢出效应会显著增强:国内市场危机时期,两个市场间的波动溢出效应具有方向性,主要是从国际原油市场向中国股票市场输出波动;国际市场危机时期,两个市场间的波动溢出效应不具有方向性。基于此,今后国内投资机构和投资者应增强资产组合的多元性;在国际市场危机时期,监管部门应重点关注国际原油市场对中国股票市场的输入型金融风险。
刘剑锋 . 国际原油市场与中国股票市场的波动溢出效应——基于滚窗VAR模型的测度[J]. 新疆财经, 2023 , 0(4) : 15 -24 . DOI: 10.16716/j.cnki.65-1030/f.2023.04.002
This paper uses the rolling window VAR model to estimate the total volatility spillover index and net volatility spillover index between Brent crude oil index, CSI 300 index and primary industry index during 2011-2021, and studies the volatility spillover effect between international crude oil market and Chinese stock market combined with the time-varying characteristics of volatility spillover index. In general, the spillover effect of volatility between the two markets is relatively small. However, in the period of market crisis, the spillover effect of volatility between markets will increase significantly. During the domestic market crisis, however, the volatility spillover effect between markets is directional, mainly from the international crude oil market to the Chinese stock market. In the period of international market crisis, the spillover effect of volatility between markets is not directional. Based on this, domestic institutions and investors should enhance the diversification of asset portfolios in the future; In the period of international market crisis, the regulatory authorities should pay special attention to the imported financial risks of the international crude oil market to the Chinese stock market.
| [1] | CAO J, WEN F. The impact of the cross-shareholding network on extreme price movements:evidence from China[J]. Journal of risk, 2019(2):79-102. |
| [2] | 俞剑, 郑文平, 程冬. 油价不确定性与企业投资[J]. 金融研究, 2016(12):32-47. |
| [3] | BATTEN J A, CINER C, LUCEY B M. The dynamic linkages between crude oil and natural gas markets[J]. Energy economics, 2017(62):155-170. |
| [4] | KHALFAOUI R, SARWAR S, TIWARI A K. Analysing volatility spillover between the oil market and the stock market in oil-importing and oil-exporting countries:implications on portfolio management[J]. Resources policy, 2019(62): 22-32. |
| [5] | JEBABLI I, AROURI M, TEULON F. On the effects of world stock market and oil price shocks on food prices:an em-pirical investigation based on TVP-VAR models with stochastic volatility[J]. Energy eonomics, 2014(45):66-98. |
| [6] | CAPPIELLO L, ENGLE R F, SHEPPARD K. Asymmetric dynamics in the correlations of global equity and bond re-turns[J]. Journal of financial econometrics, 2006(4):537-572. |
| [7] | JIN J, HAN L, WU L, et al. The hedging effectiveness of global sectors in emerging and developed stock markets[J]. International review of economics & finance, 2020(66):92-117. |
| [8] | SOYDEMIR G. International transmission mechanism of stock market movements:evidence from emerging equity markets[J]. Journal of forecasting, 2000(3):149-176. |
| [9] | DIEBOLD F X, YILMAZ K. Measuring financial asset return and volatility spillovers,with application to global equity markets[J]. The economic journal, 2009(534):158-171. |
| [10] | DIEBOLD F X, YILMAZ K. Better to give than to receive:predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers[J]. International journal of forecasting, 2012(1):57-66. |
| [11] | 郑挺国, 刘堂勇. 股市波动溢出效应及其影响因素分析[J]. 经济学 (季刊), 2018(2):669-692. |
| [12] | 张小婉, 易荣华, 俞莹, 等. 基于滚窗VAR的沪港通波动溢出效应测度[J]. 中国管理科学, 2021(5):1-12. |
| [13] | 谭小芬, 张峻晓, 郑辛如. 国际大宗商品市场与金融市场的双向溢出效应:基于BEKK-GARCH 模型和溢出指数法的实证研究[J]. 中国软科学, 2018(8):31-48. |
| [14] | 金洪飞, 金荦. 国际石油价格对中国股票市场的影响:基于行业数据的经验分析[J]. 金融研究, 2010(2):173-187. |
| [15] | 刘湘云, 朱春明. 国际石油价格波动对中国股票市场的风险溢出效应[J]. 金融经济学研究, 2011(2):56-71. |
| [16] | 郭国峰, 郑召锋. 国际能源价格波动对中国股市的影响:基于计量模型的实证检验[J]. 中国工业经济, 2011(6):26-35. |
| [17] | 刘剑锋, 何文祥. 国际原油市场与中国股票行业板块之间的相关性研究:基于Copula模型的方法[J]. 金融理论与实践, 2020(6):83-89. |
| [18] | 丁绪辉, 王柳元, 贺菊花. 国际石油价格与我国股票市场的联动效应:基于VAR模型的实证分析[J]. 企业经济, 2017(7):167-173. |
| [19] | 周东海, 陈滨霞, 蒋远营. “两率”市场化改革、国际原油与中国股市关系研究[J]. 统计与信息论坛, 2020(2): 47-58. |
| [20] | 李强, 何妃婷, 董耀武. 国际原油期货极端风险溢出及其防范研究:基于DCC-TGARCH-CoVaR模型的分析[J]. 价格理论与实践, 2020(12):79-82. |
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |