近年来,中国对非洲出口贸易取得了快速发展,截至2017年,中国已连续6年成为非洲最大的进口来源国。本文选取2001年—2017年非洲27个代表性国家的贸易数据,运用随机前沿引力模型实证分析了中国对非洲出口的贸易效率以及贸易潜力。结果显示:中国对非洲27个国家的出口贸易效率呈缓慢上升趋势,但总体出口效率较低,中国对非洲的出口贸易存在较大的提升空间。从中国与非洲27个国家贸易效率的影响因素来看,进口国人口总量和出口国人均GDP对贸易往来有促进作用,而人均收入差异以及金融危机是制约贸易往来的主要因素。未来,中国可从中非制度合作、对非基础设施援助、中非贸易投资环境以及品牌质量等方面着手提高贸易效率,进一步释放贸易潜力。

In recent years, China's export trade to Africa has made rapid progress. By 2017, China had become Africa's largest importer for six consecutive years. Both countries have great trade potentialities. This paper chooses the trade data of 27 representative countries in Africa from 2001 to 2017 and uses stochastic frontier gravity model to study the trade efficiency and trade potential of China's exports to Africa. The results display that the trade efficiency of 27 African countries has a slow upward trend, but the overall efficiency is low and China's export trade potential to Africa has considerable room to improve. According to the factors which affect trade efficiency between China and 27 African countries, the population of importing countries and the per capita GDP of exporting countries can promote trade, but the per capita income gap and financial crisis are the factors will hinder trade. In the future, through setting about China-Africa institutional cooperation, infrastructure assistance to Africa, China-Africa trade investment environment and brand quality, China will improve trade efficiency and release trade potential further.