本文系统梳理了全球、发达经济体、发展中经济体和中国的国际资本流动趋势和特点。分析发现:全球国际资本流动总量趋于稳定,FDI流量稳中小幅波动,全球国际证券投资由净流入转为净流出。发达经济体与发展中经济体国际金融项目差额呈相反趋势,外商直接投资流动的波动性也有所差异,两类经济体国际证券投资净额变动趋势差异较大。中国国际资本流量呈双向波动状态。国际资本流动趋势及呈现的特点带来的政策启示为:中国应当坚持相机抉择和稳健中性原则,把握好国际资本管理节奏;人民币国际化不应倒逼资本项目过快开放;从国际国内两个层面防范和化解国际资本大规模流动的风险;加强国家之间的金融政策协调。
This paper systematically sorted out the trends and characteristics of international capital flows in the world, devel-oped economies, developing economies and China, and found that the total amount of global capital flows tends to be stable, the FDI flow is stable and slightly fluctuates, and the net inflow of securities investment turns to net outflow. The financial balance of developed and developing economies shows an opposite trend, and the volatility of direct investment flows is also different. The flow of international capital in China fluctuates in both directions. The enlightenment brought by the trend and characteristics of international capital flow is that China should adhere to the principle of discretion and steadiness and neutral-ity, and grasp the rhythm of international capital management; the internationalization of RMB should not force the capital ac-count to be opened up too quickly; from the international and domestic levels to prevent and defuse the risk of large-scale in-ternational capital flow; strengthening financial policy coordination among countries.
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