本文基于1994年—2017年省级面板数据,运用倾向得分匹配双重差分法PSM-DID模型验证“一带一路”倡议对西部沿线省市的经济增长效应,并进一步分析西部沿线省市经济发展的主要动力。实证研究发现:“一带一路”倡议显著促进了西部沿线省市的GDP增长,工业化水平的提升、产业结构的优化是促进西部沿线省市GDP增长的主要推动力。西部沿线省市应走新型工业化发展道路,加快第三产业发展并积极吸引外资,以推动各省市的经济增长。

Based on the provincial panel data from 1994 to 2017, using difference in PSM-DID method, this paper analyzes the economic growth effects in western China under "the Belt and Road"initiative.The empirical analysis has found that "the Belt and Road" Initiative promotes the growth of GDP in western China significantly. Furthermore, by analyzing the transmission mechanism, this paper shows that the promotion of industrialization level and the optimization of industrial structure are the main driving forces to promote the GDP of the western regions along the Belt and Road. Therefore, it is of great necessity for western China to take the new industrialization road, accelerate the development of the tertiary industry and attract foreign cap-ital to promote the economic growth in different cities and provinces.