2018年初,巴基斯坦央行宣布允许人民币用于双边贸易、投资结算,在此新一轮“去美元化”背景下,这将成为人民币国际化的新支点。本文根据货币选择理论,利用Hansen的门槛回归模型,分析不同跨境人民币结算规模下各宏观变量对中巴双边贸易规模的影响。结果表明：跨境人民币结算规模对中巴双边贸易具有显著的门槛效应,当不考虑“门槛效应”时,跨境人民币结算对中巴双边贸易的正向作用被高估;当中巴跨境人民币结算规模较大、高于门槛值时,我国稳健的货币政策、人民币兑卢比汇率升值将对中巴双边贸易产生正向促进作用,同时也将减少投资者利用中巴两国通货膨胀率和利率差套汇或套利等方式赚取差价的投机行为。因此,要多措并举加大人民币向巴基斯坦“走出去”的力度。
At the beginning of 2018, the Central Bank of Pakistan announced that it would allow RMB to be used for bilateral trade and investment settlement. In this new round of “de-dollarization”, it will become a new standpoint of RMB internationalization. Based on the theory of currency choice and Hansen’s threshold regression model, this paper analyses the impact of macro variables on Sino-Pakistan bilateral trade scale under different cross-border RMB settlement scales. The empirical results show that the scale of cross-border RMB settlement has a significant threshold effect on Sino-Pakistan bilateral trade; when the scale of cross-border RMB settlement is large and the threshold value is crossed, China’s prudent monetary policy and appreciation of RMB/rupee exchange rate will have a positive effect on Sino-Pakistan bilateral trade. At the same time, it will also reduce the speculative behavior of investors using the inflation rate and interest rate difference arbitrage or arbitrage between China and Pakistan to earn the difference. Therefore, more measures should be taken to strengthen the RMB“going out” to Pakistan.
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