伴随着我国经济的快速发展,鲜切花生产、消费、贸易等也呈现出稳定快速增长的趋势。本文利用鲜切花贸易数据与我国鲜切花产业发展数据,通过梳理鲜切花进口贸易特征发现,我国鲜切花进口数量和额度均呈现增长态势,鲜切花进口来源国较为集中、进口市场发展潜力巨大。同时,基于UN Comtrade数据库不同进口来源国鲜切花进口数据,构建测度鲜切花进口需求弹性的AIDS模型,采用似不相关回归方法对弹性系数进行估计,并分别计算支出弹性、自我补偿价格弹性和交叉价格弹性。结果发现：中国鲜切花在进口市场上的进口数量与进口支出正相关;鲜切花进口价格与进口数量反向变动,且进口数量对进口价格变化的敏感度较高;不同进口来源国家的鲜切花以互补关系为主,仅少数国家之间存在替代关系,但替代关系不明显,反映了我国对鲜切花进口贸易的巨大需求。今后,我国鲜切花进口将进一步扩大,进口来源地和进口品种将日趋多元化。
With the rapid development of Chinese economy, the production of fresh cut flowers, consumption, and trade all showed a steady and rapid growth trend. Based on this, the paper uses fresh cut flower trade data and China’s fresh cut flower industry development data to sort out the characteristics of imported cut flower trade. Through comparison and analysis, it is found that the import volume and quota of fresh cut flowers in China both show an increasing trend. The source of fresh cut flowers is relatively concentrated, and the import market for fresh cut flowers has great development potential. Based on the import data of fresh cut flowers from different importing countries in the UN Comtrade database, an AIDS model measuring the import demand elasticity of fresh cut flowers was constructed. The irrelevance regression method was used to estimate the elasticity coefficient, and the expenditure elasticity, self-compensation price elasticity and cross-price were calculated separately elasticity. The conclusions are: China’s fresh cut flower import market is positively related to import volume and import spending. The import price of fresh cut flowers and the import amount reversed, and the import quantity was more sensitive to changes in import prices. The fresh cut flowers of different importing countries mainly consist of complementary relationships. Only a few countries have an alternative relationship, but the alternative relationship is not obvious, which reflects Chinese huge demand for fresh cut flowers import trade. In the future, China’s fresh cut flower imports will further expand, and import sources and fresh cut flower varieties will become increasingly diversified.
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