本文通过构建资本流动风险指数,对2002年—2015年哈萨克斯坦资本流动的风险状态进行评价,得出哈萨克斯坦资本流动风险指数呈现四个阶段的变化趋势:2002年—2006年为不断下降阶段,2006年—2009年为急速上升阶段,2009年—2011年为快速下降阶段,2011年—2015年为缓慢上升阶段。并采用DGM(1,1)模型及Verhulst模型对其资本流动风险的变化趋势进行了预测,结果显示:未来几年哈萨克斯坦国际资本流动风险水平将呈缓慢上升的趋势,且银行市场风险和全球经济风险是推动资本流动风险水平上升的主要因素。
This paper evaluates the capital flows risk of Kazakhstan from the year 2002 to the year 2015 by constructing capital flow risk index and concludes that Kazakhstan's capital flow risk index shows a trend of change with four phases: the decline stage (2002 to 2006), the rapid ascent stage (2006 to 2009), the quick decline stage (2009 to 2011) and the slow rising stage (2011 to 2015). Then it employs the DGM (1, 1) model and the Verhulst model to forecast the trend of capital flows risk change, and the results show that the international capital flow risk level tends to slowly rise in Kazakhstan in the next few years, and bank market risk and the risk of the global economy are the main factors promoting capital flow risk levels.
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