Abstract: Industrial manufactured goods plays an increasingly important role in trade between China and Kazakhstan, high technological manufactured goods have developed fast on quality and quantity. This paper makes an empirical analysis of trade potential of industrial manufactured goods between China and Kazakhstan by constructing a trade gravity model and based on this, finds the influential factors of trade potential through impulse response. The results show that both sides’scale of economy, Kazakhstan trade freedom and, CI of high tech industrial manufactured goods have a remarkable boost effect on export potential; production cost of high tech industrial manufactured goods, however, has a notable restrain impact. The export potential keeps either developing or great from 1996 to 2015, and the stable growth of economy and invest cooperation establish a favorable foundation to develop trade between China and Kazakhstan. In addition, “the Silk Road Economic Belt”also brings enormous opportunities to export China’s manufactured goods to Kazakhstan.

Key words: Manufactured Goods, High Technological, Export Potential, Gravity Model, Impulse Response