Abstract: With the demographic change of generations, China is still in the middle-income stage, a demographic imbalance and the total population are still outstanding issues, the demographic imbalance requires us to promptly release the two-child policy, due to total population, we cannot claim the full liberalization fertility, under the background of the implementation of the universal two-child policy, how to go to find a third way between two-child policy and free fertility? This paper presents a birth quota trading mechanism under the planned quota system: statistics, distribution, trade, which is able to meet the China’s population in total control, so that the total amount of the target have been implemented to prevent the occurrence of the Malthusian trap, on the micro,but also makes population structure reasonable, fertility behavior has been optimized in the family room, on time, space and different stages of income, achieving the purpose of reserving for future human resources,improving human capital, settling the problem of becoming the aged before getting rich and oversized resource pressure,and thus the above policy help China move away from the middle-income stage into the developed countries. Of course, the reform of the family planning is an important measure which to give full basic effect of the market allocation resources, but also is an important part of the socialist market economic reform.

Key words: Planned Quota System, Population Structure, Baby Boom, Birth Quota Trading, Total Population

摘要： 伴随着人口世代的更迭,还处在中等收入阶段的中国将面临人口结构失衡和人口总量过大的双重问题,人口结构失衡要求我们放开生育政策,人口总量过大又要求我们不能完全放开生育政策。那么,在全面放开二孩与不限制生育之间能否寻找到第三条路？本文设计了一种计划配额制下的准生权交易机制:对准生权一统二放三交易,这即能满足国家在总量上控制人口,使得总量目标得到落实,避免掉入马尔萨斯人口陷阱,也使得人口结构在微观上得到优化,生育行为在家庭间、时间上、空间上以及不同收入阶段上配置,达到为未来老龄化社会储备人力资源和提高人力资本的目的,最终解决中国在老龄化社会中所面临的人口结构失衡和人口基数过大引致的未富先老和资源环境压力过大的问题,进而协助中国迈出中等收入阶段。本文认为,计划配额下的准生权交易制度改革是充分发挥市场配置资源的一项重要举措,也是社会主义市场经济改革的一项重要内容。

关键词: 计划配额, 人口结构, 婴儿潮, 准生权交易, 人口总量