Abstract: As the core content of the "Belt and Road" initiative, the construction of facility and trade connectivity is particularly important. Road connectivity is the foundation of facility connectivity. By using factor analysis, this paper establishes an evaluation index system to measure the level of road connectivity of countries along the "Silk Road Economic Belt". On this basis, taking India, the Russian Federation, Kazakhstan, and Pakistan as examples, this paper analyzes the level of road connectivity based on the VAR model. The influence of bilateral trade shows that the level of road connectivity in India, Kazakhstan and Pakistan has a greater positive effect on bilateral trade, while the level of road connectivity in the Russian Federation does not show a positive external effect. With the accelerated advancement of the "Belt and Road" initiative, the level of road connectivity in countries along the "Silk Road Economic Belt" can be improved by strengthening transportation infrastructure technology cooperation and talents cooperation, and promoting the intelligent development of transportation infrastructure. And then expanding the scale of bilateral trade.

Key words: the "Belt and Road" Initiative, Silk Road Economy, Silk Road Economic Belt, Road Connectivity, Bilateral Trade, VAR Model

摘要： 作为"一带一路"倡议的核心内容,设施联通与贸易畅通的建设尤为重要,其中道路联通是设施联通的基础。本文通过建立测评指标体系,采用因子分析法衡量“丝绸之路经济带”沿线国家道路联通水平,在此基础上以印度、俄罗斯联邦、哈萨克斯坦、巴基斯坦为例,基于VAR模型分析道路联通水平对双边贸易的影响,研究发现：印度、哈萨克斯坦、巴基斯坦的道路联通水平对双边贸易有较大的正向促进作用,而俄罗斯联邦的道路联通水平并未显示出正外部效应。随着“一带一路”倡议的加速推进,可通过加强交通基础设施技术合作及人才合作、推进交通基础设施智能化发展等途径提高“丝绸之路经济带”沿线国家的道路联通水平,扩大中国与其双边贸易规模。

关键词: "一带一路"倡议, 丝路经济, 丝绸之路经济带, 道路联通, 双边贸易, VAR模型