Abstract: Kazakhstan, Closely adjacent to Xinjiang, China, is the neighbor China attaches great importance to and important partner. It is also one of the countries that respond positively to the “One Belt and One Road” initiative. In the course of the construction of “One Belt and One Road”, whether the cooperative countries along have a good financial system is a problem that cannot be ignored. According to the fragility, the complexity and nonlinearityof the financial system, based on the comprehensive analysis of the constituent elements of the financial system, the paper establishes the domestic economic system, financial system, foreign economic vulnerability evaluation system, using related quantitative recursive calculation of the catastrophe theory, and evaluates Kazakhstan and China's financial system and gets the financial system fragility coefficient to judge financial system vulnerability degree in China and Kazakhstan respectively. Finally, by comparingform and characteristics of financial fragility between two countries, it puts forward suggestions on how to promote the construction of the “One Belt and One Road”.

Key words: “One Belt and One Road” Initiative, Financial Fragility, Catastrophe Theory, Empirical Study

摘要： 哈萨克斯坦与我国新疆地区紧密毗邻,是我国极其重要的合作伙伴,也是积极响应“一带一路”倡议的国家之一。在“一带一路”建设的进程中,沿线的合作国是否拥有良好的金融系统是一个不容忽视的问题。根据金融体系的脆弱性、复杂性及非线性,本文在全面分析金融体系构成要素的基础上建立了国内经济系统、金融系统、对外经济系统脆弱性评价体系,并运用突变理论的相关量化递归计算,分别对哈萨克斯坦和中国的金融系统进行评估,得出两国金融体系脆弱性系数,用以判断中国与哈萨克斯坦金融体系的脆弱性程度。最后通过对比两国金融脆弱性的形态和特征,就如何促进“一带一路”建设提出了相关建议。

关键词: 一带一路, 金融脆弱性, 突变理论, 实证研究