Abstract:

Based on the agricultural trade data of 35 countries between China and Africa from 2010 to 2019, this paper constructs a stochastic frontier gravity model and a trade inefficiency model to calculate the trade efficiency and trade potential of China Africa agricultural products, and analyzes the main influencing factors of Sino-Africa agricultural products trade efficiency and trade potential from four aspects: infrastructure level, economic system environment, political system environment, and the signing of "the Belt and Road" cooperation agreement. The results show that the average trade efficiency of agricultural products between China and Africa is 0.35, which shows a stable upward trend; Good liner transportation capacity, higher government financial expenditure, higher government work efficiency, and the signing of the "the Belt and Road" cooperation agreement can significantly improve trade efficiency; The countries with the highest trade efficiency in Sion-Africa agricultural products trade are South Africa, Mauritius and Egypt, and the countries with the greatest trade potential are Nigeria, South Africa and Benin; In addition, from a sub-regional perspective, the trade efficiency of northern Africa is high, the trade potential of Western and southern Africa is large, and the trade expansion space of eastern and Central Africa is large. In the future, it is significance to further optimize the agricultural industrial structure, improve the efficiency of agricultural trade, and promote the sustainable and high-quality development of Sino-Africa relations.

Key words: Sino-Africa, agricultural products trade, trade efficiency, trade potential, "the Belt and Road" Initiative, stochastic frontier gravitational model

摘要：

文章选取2010年—2019年中国与非洲35个国家农产品贸易数据，构建随机前沿引力模型与贸易非效率模型测算中非农产品贸易效率与贸易潜力，从基础设施水平、经济制度环境、政治制度环境、签署“一带一路”合作协议4个方面分析中非农产品贸易效率与贸易潜力的主要影响因素。研究表明：中非农产品平均贸易效率为0.35，总体呈稳定上升态势；良好的班轮运输能力、较高的政府财政支出水平、较高的政府工作效率、“一带一路”合作协议的签署能够显著提高贸易效率；中非农产品贸易中贸易效率较高的国家是南非、毛里求斯、埃及，贸易潜力较大的国家是尼日利亚、南非、贝宁；分区域来看，北部非洲的贸易效率较高，西部和南部非洲的贸易潜力较大，东部和中部非洲的贸易拓展空间较大。今后应进一步优化农业产业结构，提高农产品贸易效率，促进中非关系可持续高质量发展。

关键词: 中非, 农产品贸易, 贸易效率, 贸易潜力, “一带一路”倡议, 随机前沿引力模型