Industrial manufactured goods plays an increasingly important role in trade between China and Kazakhstan, high technological manufactured goods have developed fast on quality and quantity. This paper makes an empirical analysis of trade potential of industrial manufactured goods between China and Kazakhstan by constructing a trade gravity model and based on this, finds the influential factors of trade potential through impulse response. The results show that both sides’scale of economy, Kazakhstan trade freedom and, CI of high tech industrial manufactured goods have a remarkable boost effect on export potential; production cost of high tech industrial manufactured goods, however, has a notable restrain impact. The export potential keeps either developing or great from 1996 to 2015, and the stable growth of economy and invest cooperation establish a favorable foundation to develop trade between China and Kazakhstan. In addition, “the Silk Road Economic Belt”also brings enormous opportunities to export China’s manufactured goods to Kazakhstan.
Chai Li
,
Fu Xin
. Export Potential of High Technological Industrial Manufactured Goods Between China and Kazakhstan[J]. Finance & Economics of Xinjiang, 2017
, 0(1)
: 60
-68
.
DOI: 10.16716/j.cnki.65-1030/f.2017.01.007
[1]朱晶,陈晓艳.中印农产品贸易互补性及贸易潜力分析[J].国际贸易问题,2006(1):40-46.
[2]马静,马海.中国与发展中国家的贸易障碍与贸易潜力[J].兰州大学学报(社会科学版),2009(6):118-124.
[3]杨国川.中加贸易互补性及贸易潜力探析[J].经济经纬,2010(2):39-42.
[4]孙林.中国农产品贸易流量及潜力测算——基于引力模型的实证分析[J].经济学家,2008(6):70-76.
[5]赵雨霖,林光华.中国与东盟10国双边农产品贸易流量与贸易潜力的分析——基于贸易引力模型的研究[J].国际贸易问题,2008(12):69-77.
[6]贺书锋,平瑛,张伟华.北极航道对中国贸易潜力的影响——基于随机前沿引力模型的实证研究[J].国际贸易问题,2013(8):3-12.
[7]孔庆峰,董虹蔚.“一带一路”国家的贸易便利化水平测算与贸易潜力研究[J].国际贸易问题,2015(12):158-168.
[8]谭秀杰,周茂荣.21世纪“海上丝绸之路”贸易潜力及其影响因素——基于随机前沿引力模型的实证研究[J].国际贸易问题,2015(2):3-12.
[9]孙金彦,刘海云.“一带一路”战略背景下中国贸易潜力的实证研究[J].当代财经,2016(6):99-106.
[10]纵婧.新疆农产品出口现状研究[J].对外经贸,2013(4):34-36.
[11]孟新月.中国农产品出口哈萨克斯坦贸易潜力测算与前景预测——基于扩展引力模型的实证研究[J].现代物业(中旬刊),2014(10):10-13.
[12]Meeusen,W.and van den Broeck,J..Efficiency Estimation from Cobb-douglas Production Functions with Composed Error[J].International Economic Review,1977(18):435-444.
[13]Aigner,Lovell,and Schmidt.Broeck Independently Proposed the Stochastic Frontier Production Function to Measure Technical Efficiency[J].Journal of Econometrics,1977(6):21-37.
[14]Armstrong,S..Measuring Trade and Trade Potential:A Survey[J].Asia Pacific Economic Paper,2007(7):644-653.
[15]樊纲,关志雄,姚枝仲.国际贸易结构分析:贸易品的技术分布[J].经济研究,2006(8):70-80.
[16]Lall Sanjaya.The Competitiveness Challenge:Transnational Corporations and Industrial Restructuring in Developing Countries[J].The Journal of Development Studies,2000(1):56-67.
[17]Armstrong,Shiro.East and South Asia in Global Trade and Trade and Economic Development[J].Eaber Working Paper Series Paper,2011(4):660-665.
[18]刘青峰,姜书竹.从贸易引力模型看中国双边贸易安排[J].浙江社会科学,2002(6):16-19.
[19]毕燕茹,师博.中国与中亚五国贸易潜力测算及分析——贸易互补性指数与引力模型研究[J].亚太经济,2010(3):47-51.
[20]李亚波.中国与智利双边货物贸易的潜力研究——基于引力模型的实证分析[J].国际贸易问题,2013(7):62-69.
[21]胡颖,周翀.中国对哈萨克斯坦直接投资:规模与结构[J].新疆财经,2016(1):58-65.