Under the background of “Silk Road Economic Zone”, China and Central Asian trade have become the hot topic.This paper selects the panel data of trade between China and 31 countries from 1995 to 2014, using the stochastic frontier gravity model to study the export trade efficiency and trade potential of China and Kazakhstan.Results showed that: although Kazakhstan’s export trade efficiency in each year is on the rise, average efficiency of 0.214, export trade efficiency is still low, export potential is larger, the average export trade to expand the space for the 245.18%, shows that China and Kazakhstan’s foreign trade still has a lot of upside.Therefore,we present policy recommendations with exploring the export potential as the aim.
Han Yanling
,
Chen Sanjing
. A Study of Sino-Kazakh Export Trade Efficiency and Potential ——Based on Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model[J]. Finance & Economics of Xinjiang, 2016
, 0(2)
: 67
-73
.
DOI: 10.16716/j.cnki.65-1030/f.2016.02.009
[1]Linnemann Han.An Econometric Study of International Trade Flows[J].Amsterdan:North-Hollanand,1966(77):201-205.
[2]Frankel Jefferey A..Regional Trading Blocs in the World Trading System[M].Washington D.C.:Institute for International Economics,1997.
[3]Rose Andrew K..one Money,one Market:The Effect of Common Currencies on Trade[J].Economic Policy,2000(30):7-46.
[4]Meeusen,Van den Broeck.Efficiency Estimation from Cobb-Douglas Production Fuction with Composed Error[J].International Economic Review,1977(3):790.
[5]施炳展,李坤望.中国出口贸易增长的可持续性研究——基于贸易随机前沿模型的分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2009(6):64-74.
[6]鲁晓东,赵奇伟.中国的出口潜力及其影响因素——基于随机前沿引力模型的估计[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2010(10):21-35.
[7]贺书峰,平瑛,张伟华.北极航道对中国贸易潜力的影响——基于随机前沿引力模型的实证研究[J].国际贸易问题,2013(8):3-12.
[8]孙艺萌.北极航线对我国对外贸易潜力的影响研究[D].大连:大连海事大学,2014.
[9]李兵,丁琳,陈妍君.中国服务贸易出口潜力及效率研究——基于随机前沿引力模型的分析[J].山东财经大学学报,2015(27):44-52.
[10]谭秀杰,周茂荣.21世纪“海上丝绸之路”贸易潜力及其影响因素——基于随机前沿引力模型的实证研究[J].国际贸易问题,2015(2):3-12.
[11]孟新月.中国农产品出口哈萨克斯坦贸易潜力测算与前景预测——基于扩展引力模型的实证研究[J].现代物业,2014(10):10-13.
[12]纵婧.中国新疆对哈萨克斯坦农产品出口潜力与市场开拓研究[D].乌鲁木齐:新疆财经大学,2014.