A Study of Influence of Economic Sanctions on Inflation in Russia

  • SUN Panfeng ,
  • LIU Lanping
Expand
  • 1. Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics, Urumqi 830012, China
    2. Urumqi Branch, Agricultural Bank of China, Urumqi 830092, China

Received date: 2022-08-12

  Online published: 2023-05-22

Abstract

With the deepening of globalization, the exchanges between countries are more frequent and closer, and the degree of mutual dependence is increasing, which makes it possible for some countries to realize their national interests by using economic sanctions. Based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Russia, this paper studies the impact of economic sanctions on inflation in Russia, and uses the constant mean model, the three-factor model and the four-factor model in the event study method to measure the effect. The study found that in the early stage of the implementation of economic sanctions, the adverse impact on inflation in Russia gradually increased, but with the passage of time and the implementation of Russia’s counter-sanctions, this adverse impact increased to a certain extent and began to slowly weaken, and later completely offset, however, the overall adverse impact of economic sanctions on the Russian economy has not been completely eliminated. In the future, China should strengthen the publicity of public opinion, accelerate the construction of domestic and international double cycle of new development pattern, increase investment in science and technology and optimize the international trade cooperation mechanism so as to better cope with the possible economic sanctions impact.

Cite this article

SUN Panfeng , LIU Lanping . A Study of Influence of Economic Sanctions on Inflation in Russia[J]. Finance & Economics of Xinjiang, 2023 , 0(2) : 71 -80 . DOI: 10.16716/j.cnki.65-1030/f.2023.02.007

References

[1] DREZNER D W. Conflict Expectations and the Paradox of Economic Coercion[J]. International Studies Quarterly, 1998(4):709-731.
[2] KAEMPFER W H, LOWENBERG A D. Unilateral Versus Multilateral International Sanctions:A Public Choice Per-spective[J]. International Studies Quarterly, 1999(1):37-58.
[3] MIYAGAWA M. Do Economic Sanctions Work?[M]. New York: McMillan Press, 1992.
[4] TORBAT A E. Impacts of the US Trade and Financial Sanctions on Iran[J]. World Economy, 2005(3):407-434.
[5] GURVICH E, PRILEPSKIY I. The Impact of Financial Sanctions on the Russian Economy[J]. Russian Journal of Eco-nomics, 2015(4):359-385.
[6] PCHELINTSEV D. Evaluating the Effect of 2014 Sanctions Against Russia Using Synthetic Control Methods[D]. Praha: Charles University, 2017.
[7] 姜薇, 陶士贵. 金融制裁对目标国经济的影响——来自合成控制法下伊朗的证据[J]. 金融论坛, 2020(2):20-30+43.
[8] 郭栋. 金融制裁与反制裁的“阻击”和“防御”效应评估——基于俄罗斯主权货币和国债市场的量化研究[J]. 金融理论与实践, 2021(12):8-15.
[9] 王志远. 俄罗斯进口替代与欧亚经济联盟发展的协同关系[J]. 新疆财经, 2020(4):69-80.
[10] 丁勇, 朱兴龙, 臧诗瑶. 俄罗斯应对美欧金融制裁的举措[J]. 中国金融, 2020(21):78.
[11] 陈佳雯. 俄乌冲突下的经济制裁:措施、影响与不确定性[J]. 国际经济合作, 2022(3):19-32.
[12] 刘建伟. 美国制裁改革背景下的对俄经济制裁[J]. 国际展望, 2022(3):38-55+158.
[13] 张红涛. 丝绸之路经济带合作安全模式研究[J]. 新疆财经, 2020(6):48-58.
[14] 刘军梅. 俄乌冲突背景下极限制裁的作用机制与俄罗斯反制的对冲逻辑[J]. 俄罗斯研究, 2022(2):62-88.
[15] 李巍, 穆睿彤. 俄乌冲突下的西方对俄经济制裁[J]. 现代国际关系, 2022(4):1-9+25+60.
[16] GOURINCHAS P O, OBSTFELD M. Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First[J]. American Economic Journal:Macroeconomics, 2012(4):226-265.
[17] 方意, 和文佳, 荆中博. 中美贸易摩擦对中国金融市场的溢出效应研究[J]. 财贸经济, 2019(6):55-69.
[18] BROWN S J, WARNER J B. Measuring Security Price Performance[J]. Journal of Financial Economics, 1980(3): 205-258.
[19] BROWN S J, WARNER J B. Using Daily Stock Returns:The Case of Event Studies[J]. Journal of Financial Econom-ics, 1985(14):3-31.
[20] ARTIS M J, BLADENHOVELL R C, ZHANG W. Turning Points in the International Business Cycle:An Analysis of the OECD Leading Indicators for the G-7 Countries[J]. OECD Economic Studies, 1995(24):125-166.
[21] 谢治春. 我国物价变动影响因素研究[J]. 南方金融, 2014(5):22-26.
[22] 孟庆斌, 靳晓婷, 吴蕾. 通货膨胀、影响因素与信息渠道[J]. 中国人民大学学报, 2018(2):77-89.
[23] 温亚昌, 赵果庆. 中国经济增长与通货膨胀、货币供应量关系研究[J]. 经济问题探索, 2018(7):36-45.
[24] 李洋. 从历史镜像中观察俄罗斯经济增长的现状与前景[J]. 新疆财经, 2020(3):62-72.
[25] 郭维. 美国政治施压事件对人民币汇率的影响研究:2005-2016年[J]. 世界经济研究, 2017(1):28-40+135.
Outlines

/