Local Government Debt Risk Assessment and Situation Analysis —Based on 2013-2021 Data

  • ZHU Wenwei ,
  • CHEN Leilan ,
  • DENG Zuoyong
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  • 1. Hunan University of Science and Engineering, Yongzhou 425199, China
    2. Guilin University of Technology, Guilin 541004, China

Received date: 2023-02-23

  Online published: 2023-09-07

Abstract

Based on the development context of the history, current situation and future trend of local government debt formation, a local government debt risk assessment system was constructed from the four dimensions of debt situation, economic strength, financial strength and financial situation. The entropy method is used to assess the debt risk of 31 provinces, cities and autonomous regions in country from 2013 to 2021, and the situation interval is divided by the principle of the three-time standard deviation. The results show that Guangdong, Shanghai and other provinces and cities are in low-risk areas, most provinces and cities are in medium-risk areas, while a few provinces and autonomous regions such as Tibet and Qinghai have extremely high debt risks, and the government debt risk scores of most provinces, cities, and autonomous regions have been increasing year by year. In this regard, we should be highly vigilant against local debt risks, formulate different debt risk prevention and resolution measures at different levels, increase the intensity of financial transfer payments to economically underdeveloped areas, and strictly control new debts.

Cite this article

ZHU Wenwei , CHEN Leilan , DENG Zuoyong . Local Government Debt Risk Assessment and Situation Analysis —Based on 2013-2021 Data[J]. Finance & Economics of Xinjiang, 2023 , 0(4) : 48 -57 . DOI: 10.16716/j.cnki.65-1030/f.2023.04.005

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