Finance & Economics of Xinjiang >
An Analysis of Export Potential of China's Mechanical and Electrical Products to Countries Along "the Belt and Road"—An Empirical Study Based on the Expansion Gravity Model
Received date: 2023-01-25
Online published: 2023-09-07
Based on the sample data of 61 countries along "the Belt and Road" from 2005 to 2019, this paper analyzes the current situation of China's export of mechanical and electrical products to the countries along "the Belt and Road", and empirically studies the influencing factors and export potential of China's export of mechanical and electrical products to the countries along "the Belt and Road" through the expanded gravity model. The findings are as follows: First, the export scale of China's mechanical and electrical products to the countries along "the Belt and Road" has been growing continuously. In terms of market categories, China's mechanical and electrical products are mainly exported to countries with strong complementarity with China's mechanical and electrical products trade, and in the product category, mainly electrical, electronic, mechanical equipment and other technical mechanical and electrical products. Second, China's GDP, importing country's GDP, importing country's political and social stability have a significant promoting effect on China's export of mechanical and electrical products to countries along "the Belt and Road", while the population size ratio of the two countries has an insignificant inhibiting effect. Third, among the export potential of China's mechanical and electrical products to 61 countries along "the Belt and Road", 28 countries belong to potential re-modeling, 9 countries belong to pioneering potential, and 24 countries belong to great potential. In the future, we should continue to further promote "the Belt and Road" Initiative, strengthen the demonstrated comparative advantages of the electromechanical industry, strengthen the integration of enterprise resources and investment in scientific research, and promote the high-quality development of the Chinese economy.
ZHANG Zhibin , CHEN Zhuo . An Analysis of Export Potential of China's Mechanical and Electrical Products to Countries Along "the Belt and Road"—An Empirical Study Based on the Expansion Gravity Model[J]. Finance & Economics of Xinjiang, 2023 , 0(4) : 70 -80 . DOI: 10.16716/j.cnki.65-1030/f.2023.04.007
| [1] | 李曦辉, 弋生辉, 黄基鑫. “一带一路”倡议推动构建人类命运共同体的效用评价[J]. 区域经济评论, 2022(1): 69-81. |
| [2] | 杨波, 李波. “一带一路”倡议与企业创新升级[J]. 科研管理, 2021(1):47-56. |
| [3] | 徐奇渊. 全球产业链重塑与中国的选择[J]. 金融论坛, 2021(8):3-7+38. |
| [4] | 王方, 胡求光. “一带一路”沿线国家机电产品贸易网络结构分析[J]. 亚太经济, 2019(5):49-58+150. |
| [5] | 邹嘉龄, 刘卫东. 2001-2013年中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易网络分析[J]. 地理科学, 2016(11):1629-1636. |
| [6] | 刘钻扩, 辛丽. 21世纪海上丝绸之路贸易便利化对中国机电产品出口的影响:基于SYS-GMM的动态分析[J]. 统计与信息论坛, 2019(6):58-66. |
| [7] | 龚勤林, 邹冬寒, 贺培科. 高质量共建“一带一路”推进中国出口多元化研究:基于市场与产品的二维视角[J]. 国际贸易, 2022(7):78-88. |
| [8] | 蔡宏波, 遆慧颖, 雷聪. “一带一路”倡议如何推动民族地区贸易发展?:基于复杂网络视角[J]. 管理世界, 2021(10):73-85+127+86. |
| [9] | 马淑琴, 戴豪杰, 徐苗. 一带一路共建国家商品贸易网络动态演化特征与中国引领策略:基于147个国家的数据[J]. 中国流通经济, 2022(9):86-101. |
| [10] | 张海伟, 孙国娟. 制度质量、基础设施与中国农产品出口:基于“一带一路”沿线国家实证分析[J]. 中国农业大学学报, 2022(8):313-324. |
| [11] | 王睿, 张爱瑜. 中国与东盟贸易效率国别比较与竞争优势研究[J]. 中国软科学, 2022(8):151-161. |
| [12] | 欧阳海琴, 凌爱凡. 人民币国际化、汇率波动、跨境结算与中国进出口贸易:基于两国开放经济的均衡模型与“一带一路”沿线国家的实证分析[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2022(12):3165-3183. |
| [13] | 王知博, 耿强. 新兴市场海外供应链构建与出口产品质量升级:来自“一带一路”倡议的准自然实验[J]. 世界经济与政治论坛, 2022(4):44-65. |
| [14] | 徐俊, 李金叶. 中国与“一带一路”国家贸易合作的第三国效应研究:基于自然资源禀赋和技术创新的双重视角[J]. 国际商务(对外经济贸易大学学报), 2022(3):19-33. |
| [15] | 刘玉飞, 常晓坤. “一带一路”倡议与中国居民家庭消费结构升级:基于准自然实验的双重差分模型分析[J]. 新疆财经, 2021(4):61-69. |
| [16] | 刘瑶, 张一平, 王孟竹. 进口贸易自由化的福利效应:基于中国与“一带一路”沿线双边进口需求弹性的测算[J]. 世界经济研究, 2022(3):3-16+134. |
| [17] | 丁小义, 李佳欣. 双边贸易、产品关联与中国产品内分工升级[J]. 经济地理, 2022(7):106-116. |
| [18] | 葛纯宝, 袁小金, 于津平, 等. 贸易便利化、空间溢出与增加值贸易网络地位:基于“一带一路”沿线国家的社会网络与空间计量分析[J]. 经济问题探索, 2022(7):150-172. |
| [19] | 刘瑞, 阎丽. 中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易增长能否助推“稳就业”:基于行业间就业溢出效应的视角[J]. 山西财经大学学报, 2022(9):45-61. |
| [20] | 杨逢珉, 吴梦怡. 中国与其他“金砖国家”机电产品贸易竞争性和互补性研究[J]. 工业技术经济, 2019(4): 133-143. |
| [21] | 汤碧, 陈佳. 中印机电产品贸易的互补性和竞争性分析[J]. 亚太经济, 2012(5):65-69. |
| [22] | 李德军, 侯莹莹. 中国与越南机电产品贸易发展趋势研究[J]. 中国市场, 2016(3):190-191. |
| [23] | 冯伟, 邵军. 我国机电产品出口贸易联系持续期的影响因素研究[J]. 国际经贸探索, 2013(5):4-16. |
| [24] | 刘钻扩, 辛丽, 曹飞飞. 21世纪海上丝绸之路物流绩效对中国机电产品出口的影响[J]. 华东经济管理, 2018(11):52-59. |
| [25] | 周杰, 李金叶. 碳关税对中国机电产品出口贸易的双重效应探讨[J]. 对外经贸实务, 2016(1):9-13. |
| [26] | 韩丽鹏. 低碳经济对我国机电产品出口产生的影响及发展策略研究[J]. 对外经贸, 2018(8):38-40. |
| [27] | 焦红浩. 新型贸易壁垒理论综述及对我国产品出口结构的影响:以机电产品出口为例[J]. 商业经济研究, 2016(6):147-149. |
| [28] | 喆儒, 王楚盈. 中国机电产品出口东盟的贸易潜力研究[J]. 价格月刊, 2020(9):36-43. |
| [29] | 张静中, 曾勇. 中国对丝绸之路经济带沿线国家机电产品出口潜力研究:基于扩展引力模型的实证分析[J]. 国际商务(对外经济贸易大学学报), 2017(4):5-15. |
| [30] | 蔡玉秋, 王馨瑶. 中国对印度出口机电产品的贸易效率及潜力研究:基于随机前沿引力模型的实证分析[J]. 价格月刊, 2019(8):52-58. |
| [31] | 尹华, 刘咪咪. 我国对“一带一路”国家电气装备制造产品出口潜力与出口效率研究[J]. 工业技术经济, 2019(8):3-9. |
| [32] | DUNGEY M, KHAN F, RAGHAVAN M. International trade and the transmission of shocks:the case of ASEAN-4 and NIE-4 economies[J]. Economic modelling, 2018(6):109-121. |
| [33] | 杨杰. 中国与其他金砖国家GVC分工特征及贸易互补性研究[J]. 当代经济管理, 2019(3):53-60. |
| [34] | 沙磊, 黄桂媛. 中国-东盟机电产品贸易现状及对策[J]. 合作经济与科技, 2021(5):84-86. |
| [35] | 齐俊妍. 中国是否出口了更多高技术产品:基于技术含量和附加值的考察[J]. 世界经济研究, 2008(9): 40-46+88. |
| [36] | TINBERGEN J. Shaping the world economy[M]. New York: Twentieth Century Fund, 1962. |
| [37] | GOPINATH M, ECHEVERRIA R. Does economic development impact the foreign direct investment-trade relation- ship?a gravity-model approach[J]. American journal of agricultural economics, 2004(3):782-787. |
| [38] | 马远, 张瑞. “一带一路”背景下中国天然气进口贸易效率及潜力分析:基于时变随机前沿引力模型[J]. 新疆财经, 2021(1):70-80. |
| [39] | 黄伟新, 龚新蜀. 丝绸之路经济带国际物流绩效对中国机电产品出口影响的实证分析[J]. 国际贸易问题, 2014(10):56-66. |
| [40] | 胡颖, 孙迪. 人民币汇率对中国对外直接投资影响的空间计量研究:以“一带一路”沿线国家为例[J]. 新疆财经, 2021(2):71-80. |
| [41] | 刘青峰, 姜书竹. 从贸易引力模型看中国双边贸易安排[J]. 浙江社会科学, 2002(6):16-19. |
| [42] | 汤春玲, 邵敬岚, 李若昕, 等. 中国对“一带一路”沿线国家货物出口贸易潜力[J]. 经济地理, 2018(9):30-37. |
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |