关键词: 计划配额, 人口结构, 婴儿潮, 准生权交易, 人口总量

Abstract: With the demographic change of generations, China is still in the middle-income stage, a demographic imbalance and the total population are still outstanding issues, the demographic imbalance requires us to promptly release the two-child policy, due to total population, we cannot claim the full liberalization fertility, under the background of the implementation of the universal two-child policy, how to go to find a third way between two-child policy and free fertility? This paper presents a birth quota trading mechanism under the planned quota system: statistics, distribution, trade, which is able to meet the China’s population in total control, so that the total amount of the target have been implemented to prevent the occurrence of the Malthusian trap, on the micro,but also makes population structure reasonable, fertility behavior has been optimized in the family room, on time, space and different stages of income, achieving the purpose of reserving for future human resources,improving human capital, settling the problem of becoming the aged before getting rich and oversized resource pressure,and thus the above policy help China move away from the middle-income stage into the developed countries. Of course, the reform of the family planning is an important measure which to give full basic effect of the market allocation resources, but also is an important part of the socialist market economic reform.

Key words: Planned Quota System, Population Structure, Baby Boom, Birth Quota Trading, Total Population