新疆财经

新疆财经 ›› 2018,Issue (5): 25-31.doi: 10.16716/j.cnki.65-1030/f.2018.05.003

• 经济理论与实践 • 上一篇    下一篇

心理预期对系统性金融风险的影响研究

左正龙1,2   

  1. 1.新疆财经大学 中亚经贸研究院,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830012;
    2.衡阳技师学院 经贸系,湖南 衡阳 421101
  • 收稿日期:2016-05-14 出版日期:2018-10-25 发布日期:2020-11-23
  • 作者简介:左正龙(1970-),男,博士研究生,研究方向:金融学。
  • 基金资助:
    新疆财经大学2018年博士生基金项目“‘一带一路’国家资本市场系统性风险研究”(XJUFE2018B005)

Research on the Effect of Psychological Expectation on Systemic Financial Risk——Citing Russian Systemic Financial Crisis as an Example

Zuo Zhenglong1,2   

  1. 1. Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics, Urumqi 830012,China;
    2. Hengyang Technician College, Hengyang 421101,China
  • Received:2016-05-14 Online:2018-10-25 Published:2020-11-23

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摘要： 本文从心理预期的角度阐释了一国发生金融危机后通过传染而引发系统性金融风险。构建的静态模型阐释了在投资者信心缺乏时系统性金融风险产生的机理,构建的动态模型说明了在资本市场中人们心理预期的变化将影响股价,而股价又影响未来系统性金融风险发生的概率。如果“企业”于第一期运行成功,投资者信心得到维护就将增加对流动性资本的投资,如果在第一期破产,投资者信心受挫将降低对流动性资本的投资,这种心理预期传染开去将引发系统性金融风险。

关键词: 心理预期, 系统性金融风险, 危机传染

Abstract: From the perspective of psychological expectation, this paper explains the systemic financial risk caused by contagion in a country after financial crisis. The built static model illustrates the production mechanism of systemic financial risk when investors are in lack of confidence. The dynamic model shows that the change of people’s psychological expectations will affect stock prices in capital market and the prices will influence the probability of systemic financial risk in the future. If “enterprises”operate successfully in the first phase investors’ confidence will be maintained, which will increase the investment in liquid capital. If the “enterprises”fail in the first phase, the discouraged investors will reduce the investment in liquid capital. The contagion of the psychological expectation will cause systemic financial risk.

Key words: Psychological Expectation, Systemic Financial Risk, Crisis Contagion

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