新疆财经

新疆财经 ›› 2018,Issue (3): 29-38.doi: 10.16716/j.cnki.65-1030/f.2018.03.004

• 经济理论与实践 • 上一篇    下一篇

新常态下我国产业结构升级的影响因素分析

马晶晶1,2, 徐瑞3, 胡江峰1   

  1. 1.西南大学,重庆 北碚 400715;
    2.綦江区委党校,重庆 綦江 401420;
    3.新疆财经大学 金融学院,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830012
  • 收稿日期:2017-12-25 出版日期:2018-06-25 发布日期:2020-11-23
  • 作者简介:马晶晶(1992-),女,讲师,研究方向:农林经济管理及产业经济学;徐瑞(1990-),男,硕士研究生,研究方向:金融;胡江峰(1989-),男,硕士研究生,研究方向:产业经济学及资源与环境经济学。
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金项目“全球价值链视角下西部制造业转型升级机制与路径研究”(148BJY076);中央高校基本科研项目“新常态下财政支出对产业结构升级的影响研究”(SWU1609245)

An Analysis of the Influencing Factors of the Upgrading of China's Industrial Structure in the New Normal Period

Ma Jingjing1,2, Xu Rui3, Hu Jiangfeng1   

  1. 1. The Southwest University,Chongqing Beibei 400715,China;
    2. The Part School of CPC of Qijiang,Chongqing Qijiang 401420,China;
    3. Xinjiang University of Finance & Economics,Urumqi 830012,China
  • Received:2017-12-25 Online:2018-06-25 Published:2020-11-23

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摘要： 本文选取我国30个省份1990年—2016年的面板数据,运用VAR回归分析方法对新常态下我国产业结构升级的影响因素进行了分析,结果显示,财政支出因子和经济贸易因子对产业结构高级化的影响效应比较大,但不显著;而人口因子的影响效应虽小,但更显著。具体表现:一是财政支出因子短期内能够促进产业结构升级,而长期不利于产业结构升级;二是我国人口因子短期内能够为产业结构升级作贡献,但若得不到进一步改善,将会成为我国产业结构持续升级的短板;三是经济贸易因子短期内能够为产业转型升级提供基础,但不利于其持续升级。基于此,本文提出应深化供给侧结构性改革、更好地发挥政府作用、培养一批高新技术服务人才、加快构建企业+政府+社会的社会保障体系、鼓励出口转型升级等对策建议。

关键词: 新常态, 财政支出, 产业结构合理化, 产业结构高级化

Abstract: This paper made an analysis of the Panel VAR regression of the panel data of China's 30 provinces from 1990 to 2016. The results show that Fiscal Expenditure Factors and Economic & Trade Factors have a greater effect on the Industrial Structure Upgrade,but the effects of population factors are more significant. The result is that,First,the fiscal expenditure factor can promote the Industrial Structure Upgrade in the short term, but it is not conducive to the Industrial Structure Upgrade in the long term;Second,China's population factor can contribute to the Industrial Structure Upgrade in the short term, but if have not further improvement,will become the Obstruct of the continuation of China's Industrial Structure Upgrade;Third,the factor of the Economic & Trade can provide the basis for the Industrial Structure Upgrade in the short term,but it is not conducive to the continuous of the Industrial Structure Upgrade. So, this paper proposes that should strengthen structural reform of the supply,the better play the role of the government, cultivate high-tech service personnel, speed up the construction of the social security system by enterprise, government and social and encourage export transformation and upgrading.

Key words: the New Normal Period, Fiscal Expenditure, Industrial Structure Rationalize, Industrial Structure Upgrade

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