高铁的需求替代效应评估：基于全局网络的研究

doi:10.16716/j.cnki.65-1030/f.2021.02.001

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 本文利用GIS计算了“八纵八横”高铁网络建成后高铁对航空和公路的需求替代效应,并评估了高铁网络对出行效率和环境的影响。研究结果表明,高铁对公路和航空会形成明显的替代效应,有31.65%的公路市场份额和12%的航空市场份额被高铁所替代。高铁的弹性系数大于航空和公路的弹性系数,且只有高铁的弹性系数大于1。高铁网络的建设也引发了“截弯取直”效应。航空和公路在客运量、周转量的减少部分中分别有50.4%和46.1%归因于“截弯取直”效应。此外,高铁能够提升出行效率,降低运营阶段交通工具的碳排放总量。与之前就单条高铁线路或局部区域网络的研究不同,本研究以包含我国大陆地区337个地级市的全局网络为研究对象,并综合考虑了包括航空、公路、高铁在内的多式交通网络,计算结果更符合现实条件。

关键词: 城际交通, "八纵八横"网络, 高铁网络, 航空, 高速公路, 多式交通, 全局网络, 替代效应, "截弯取直"效应, 出行规模

Abstract: This paper uses GIS to calculate the demand substitution effect of high-speed rail on aviation and highway after the completion of the "eight vertical and eight horizontal" high-speed rail network, and to quantitatively evaluate the impact of high-speed rail network on travel efficiency and environmental benefits. The results show that high-speed rail has a significant substitution effect on highway and aviation, replacing 31.65% of the road market share and 12% of the aviation market share. The elastic coefficient of high-speed rail is much larger than the that of aviation and highway, and is the only one greater than 1. More importantly, the construction of the high-speed rail network will trigger the effect of "cut-off". Among aviation and highway, 50.4% of the reduced passenger volume and 46.1% of the reduced turnover volume are attributed to the "cut-off" effect. High-speed rail can also improve travel efficiency and enhance environmental benefits by reducing the total carbon emissions in the operational stage. Different from previous studies on single high-speed rail lines or local areas, this study takes the global network between 337 prefecture-level cities in mainland China as the research object and considered the multi-modal transportation network including aviation, highways, and high-speed rail. Therefore, the results are more realistic.

Key words: Intercity Traffic, "Eight Vertical and Eight Horizontal"Network, High-speed Rail Network, Aviation, Highway, Multimodal Transportation, Nationwide Network, Substation Effect, "Cut-off" Effect, Number of Tourists

中图分类号:

F572

翁瑾, 肖嘉颖, 李鑫. 高铁的需求替代效应评估：基于全局网络的研究[J]. 新疆财经, 2021, (2): 5-16.

Weng Jin, Xiao Jiaying, Li Xin. An Evaluation on the Demand Substitution Effect of High-speed Rail：Based on Nationwide Network[J]. Finance & Economics of Xinjiang, 2021, (2): 5-16.

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