本文从心理预期的角度阐释了一国发生金融危机后通过传染而引发系统性金融风险。构建的静态模型阐释了在投资者信心缺乏时系统性金融风险产生的机理,构建的动态模型说明了在资本市场中人们心理预期的变化将影响股价,而股价又影响未来系统性金融风险发生的概率。如果“企业”于第一期运行成功,投资者信心得到维护就将增加对流动性资本的投资,如果在第一期破产,投资者信心受挫将降低对流动性资本的投资,这种心理预期传染开去将引发系统性金融风险。

From the perspective of psychological expectation, this paper explains the systemic financial risk caused by contagion in a country after financial crisis. The built static model illustrates the production mechanism of systemic financial risk when investors are in lack of confidence. The dynamic model shows that the change of people’s psychological expectations will affect stock prices in capital market and the prices will influence the probability of systemic financial risk in the future. If “enterprises”operate successfully in the first phase investors’ confidence will be maintained, which will increase the investment in liquid capital. If the “enterprises”fail in the first phase, the discouraged investors will reduce the investment in liquid capital. The contagion of the psychological expectation will cause systemic financial risk.