为了考察双边教育协定的签订对来华留学生是否具有政策引导作用,本文采用2003年—2018年104个国家的数据,运用LSDV方法进行双向固定效应回归。结果发现：双边教育协定的签订显著促进了来华留学生规模的扩大,其中对学历生的影响大于对非学历生的影响。对生源国进行区分发现,双边教育协定的签订对“一带一路”沿线国家来华留学生规模的促进作用较非“一带一路”沿线国家更为明显,对发达国家来华留学生规模的促进作用较发展中国家更为明显。进一步考虑双边外交关系的调节效应,发现双边外交关系和双边教育协定存在一定程度的替代效应。未来中国在留学生教育合作中可以通过缔结高标准的双边教育协定、促进“一带一路”区域发展战略、发展双边关系来提升我国教育服务贸易的国际竞争力。

In order to investigate whether the signing of bilateral education agreements has a policy guiding role for foreign students in China, this paper uses the data of 104 countries from 2003 to 2018 and uses LSDV method to carry out two-way fixed effect regression. The results show that the signing of bilateral education agreements significantly promotes the expansion of the scale of foreign students in China, and the impact on academic students is greater than that on non academic students. By distinguishing the countries of origin, it is found that the signing of bilateral education agreements has a more obvious role in promoting the scale of students from countries along the "belt and road" than non countries along the "belt and road", and a more obvious role in promoting the scale of students from developed countries than developing countries. Further considering the regulatory effect of bilateral diplomatic relations, it is found that there is a certain degree of substitution effect in bilateral diplomatic relations and bilateral education agreements. In the future, China can enhance the international competitiveness of China's education service trade by concluding high-standard bilateral education agreements, promoting the "belt and road" regional development strategy and developing bilateral relations.