在气候特点独特的地区,游客量的变化与旅游气候舒适度之间呈现逆变化的特点,对其进行定量研究有助于把握其变化的规律。本文根据吐鲁番1962年—2013年,共计52年的气象数据以及2010年—2012年吐鲁番地区接待的国内外游客量为基础数据,应用OLS方法建立线性回归方程进行定量研究。结果显示:气候舒适度与旅游地年内游客量变化有密切关系。国内外游客量年内变化分两个时段:4—10月,游客量呈现随舒适度下降而增长的逆气候变化现象,国内外游客量月指数受气候舒适度影响的弹性系数分别为-1.86%和-2.46%;11月—翌年3月是吐鲁番地区的旅游淡季,接待国内外游客量较少。其中,6—8月气候舒适度评价为较不适宜月份,但游客量却逐月递增,呈现负相关的变化趋势,这与国内相关文献的研究结论相反。游客量随舒适度下降而增加的逆气候变化现象说明,吐鲁番游客量的变化不仅仅受气候舒适度的影响,还受游客体验偏好、认知态度以及节庆活动等其他因素的影响。
In the region which has unique climate features, there is a phenomenon of the visitors growing with the tourism climate comfort degree going down, a quantitative research to which will help to master the law of its change. This paper, using climate data in the past 52 years (1962-2013), makes a comment on the tourist climate comfort in Turpan and divides grades of fitness and periodic distribution. Combining monthly visitors index of overseas tourists and domestic tourists in Turpan from the year 2010 to 2012, based on numerical value of climate comfortable degree and fictitious factors, OLS method was adopt to establish the correlation of monthly visitors index and related climate comfortable degree and fictitious factors. The result shows that climate comfort degree is closely related to tourist amount. Yearly variation of overseas and domestic tourists is divided into two periods during the year. A special phenomenon is that tourists increase with climate comfort–index falling. The domestic and overseas monthly index of climatic coefficient of elasticity is -1.86% and -2.46% respectively. The volume of travelers is mainly affected by climate comfort degree in the cold-weather months from November to March of the next year, and also affected by the New Year holiday. The domestic and international visitors are less in other months. Although the period from June to August is evaluated to be the less appropriate months, visitors are increasing month by month. The result is contrary to the conclusions of related research literature. This phenomenon shows that the visitors change in Turpan not only affected by climate comfort, also by tourists experience preference, cognitive attitude, festivals and other factors.
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