关键词: 气候舒适度, 游客量变化, 相关性分析, 吐鲁番

Abstract: In the region which has unique climate features, there is a phenomenon of the visitors growing with the tourism climate comfort degree going down, a quantitative research to which will help to master the law of its change. This paper, using climate data in the past 52 years (1962-2013), makes a comment on the tourist climate comfort in Turpan and divides grades of fitness and periodic distribution. Combining monthly visitors index of overseas tourists and domestic tourists in Turpan from the year 2010 to 2012, based on numerical value of climate comfortable degree and fictitious factors, OLS method was adopt to establish the correlation of monthly visitors index and related climate comfortable degree and fictitious factors. The result shows that climate comfort degree is closely related to tourist amount. Yearly variation of overseas and domestic tourists is divided into two periods during the year. A special phenomenon is that tourists increase with climate comfort–index falling. The domestic and overseas monthly index of climatic coefficient of elasticity is -1.86% and -2.46% respectively. The volume of travelers is mainly affected by climate comfort degree in the cold-weather months from November to March of the next year, and also affected by the New Year holiday. The domestic and international visitors are less in other months. Although the period from June to August is evaluated to be the less appropriate months, visitors are increasing month by month. The result is contrary to the conclusions of related research literature. This phenomenon shows that the visitors change in Turpan not only affected by climate comfort, also by tourists experience preference, cognitive attitude, festivals and other factors.

Key words: Climate Comfortable Degree, Variation of Tourists, Correlation Analysis, Turpan