The Evaluation and Forecast of International Capital Flow Risk in Kazakhstan Based on Index Method

doi:10.16716/j.cnki.65-1030/f.2017.03.009

Abstract

Abstract: This paper evaluates the capital flows risk of Kazakhstan from the year 2002 to the year 2015 by constructing capital flow risk index and concludes that Kazakhstan's capital flow risk index shows a trend of change with four phases: the decline stage (2002 to 2006), the rapid ascent stage (2006 to 2009), the quick decline stage (2009 to 2011) and the slow rising stage (2011 to 2015). Then it employs the DGM (1, 1) model and the Verhulst model to forecast the trend of capital flows risk change, and the results show that the international capital flow risk level tends to slowly rise in Kazakhstan in the next few years, and bank market risk and the risk of the global economy are the main factors promoting capital flow risk levels.

Key words: Kazakhstan, Capital Flow Risk, Evaluation and Forecast, Index Method

CLC Number:

F831.6

Zhang Shuai. The Evaluation and Forecast of International Capital Flow Risk in Kazakhstan Based on Index Method[J]. Finance & Economics of Xinjiang, 2017, (3): 70-80.

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