Finance & Economics of Xinjiang

Finance & Economics of Xinjiang ›› 2016, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (1): 41-48.DOI: 10.16716/j.cnki.65-1030/f.2016.01.005

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Xinjiang Industrial Economic Forecast Model——From Keqiang Index

Chen Xiaokun, Wang Jingyi   

  1. Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics, Urumqi 830012, China
  • Received:2015-09-25 Online:2020-12-10 Published:2016-02-25

新疆工业经济预测模型构建——来自克强指数

陈小昆, 王静怡   

  1. 新疆财经大学 统计与信息学院,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830012
  • 作者简介:陈小昆(1963-),女,教授,研究方向:经济统计、市场调查;王静怡(1993-),女,硕士研究生,研究方向:市场调查。
  • 基金资助:
    新疆维吾尔自治区社会科学基金项目“丝绸之路经济带背景下新疆交通运输系统一体化协调发展研究”(2015BGL101)

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Abstract: Based on the existing research achievements of scholars at home and abroad, this paper, with the quarterly data from 2003—2013 parameters related to Keqiang Index in Xinjiang as the object of study, using the nonparametric regression model and log-linear regression model to model, predicts the change of industrial added value, as well as the influence of industrial added value on macroeconomic development. The result shows that the model built on the basis of relevant parameters of Keqiang Index can reflect industrial economic changes rapidly, and forecast effects towards industrial added value by using these models are pretty good.

Key words: Keqiang Index, Industrial Added Value, Regression Nonparametric, Regression Logarithm

摘要： 本文在借鉴国内外学者己有研究成果的基础上,借助新疆2003年—2013年克强指数相关指标的季度数据,运用非参数回归模型和对数线性回归模型进行建模,预测新疆工业增加值的变化,进而预测新疆工业增加值对新疆宏观经济发展的影响。结果表明,通过克强指数相关指标建立的模型可以及时快速地反映出工业经济变化,且这些模型对工业增加值的预测有很好的效果。

关键词: 克强指数, 工业增加值, 非参数回归, 对数回归

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