Abstract: As a social support system for guaranteeing the basic life of rural residents, the rural minimum living guarantee system is essential to achieve social stability and long-term stability. Based on time series data from 2010 to 2015, build the system of subsistence allowances for moderate level model, the present situation and moderate levels of Xinjiang rural minimum living security are discussed and compared, the conclusion: Xinjiang rural minimum living security reality level is between 0.058% and 0.807%, and the measure of Xinjiang rural minimum living security moderate level is between 0.7% and 1.6%, the status quo level and moderate level far, that is to say, the status quo of Xinjiang rural minimum living security level is beyond the scope of our forecast, and part of the rural population is not up to the lowest life guarantee level in Xinjiang. Therefore, it is suggested that we should improve the legal system of minimum living guarantee, adjust the base line in time, and expand the source channel of rural minimum living guarantee.

Key words: Rural Minimum Living Guarantee, Moderate level, Level of Reality, Xinjiang