Abstract: As a social support system for guaranteeing the basic life of rural residents, the rural minimum living guarantee system is essential to achieve social stability and long-term stability. Based on time series data from 2010 to 2015, build the system of subsistence allowances for moderate level model, the present situation and moderate levels of Xinjiang rural minimum living security are discussed and compared, the conclusion: Xinjiang rural minimum living security reality level is between 0.058% and 0.807%, and the measure of Xinjiang rural minimum living security moderate level is between 0.7% and 1.6%, the status quo level and moderate level far, that is to say, the status quo of Xinjiang rural minimum living security level is beyond the scope of our forecast, and part of the rural population is not up to the lowest life guarantee level in Xinjiang. Therefore, it is suggested that we should improve the legal system of minimum living guarantee, adjust the base line in time, and expand the source channel of rural minimum living guarantee.

Key words: Rural Minimum Living Guarantee, Moderate level, Level of Reality, Xinjiang

摘要： 农村最低生活保障制度作为保障农村居民最基本生活的一项社会扶助制度,对于实现社会稳定和长治久安至关重要。本文选取2010年—2015年的时间序列数据构建最低生活保障制度的适度水平模型,对新疆农村最低生活保障适度水平进行测度并与现实水平进行对比,得出结论:新疆农村最低生活保障现实水平在0.058%～0.807%之间,而测算的新疆农村最低生活保障适度水平在0.7%～1.6%之间,现实水平与适度水平相差甚远,也就是说,新疆农村最低生活保障的现实水平不在预测范围内,而且还有一部分农村人口没有达到新疆最低生活保障水平。为此,本文提出应完善最低生活保障的法律体系、适时调整基准线、扩大乡村最低生活保障资金的来源渠道等建议。

关键词: 农村最低生活保障, 适度水平, 现实水平, 新疆