Abstract: This paper employs the text-based GPR index to reveal the characteristics of geopolitical risks in representative countries along the "Belt and Road", and then uses the survival analysis method to analyze the survival duration of export relationships between China and representative countries over the period of 1996-2018. Based on the above analysis, we empirically test the impact of geopolitical risk on the survival duration of China's export relationships. The geopolitical risk of the "Belt and Road" is relatively high, and higher than the global level in the majority years of the sample period; The duration of export relationships between China and representative countries are relatively short, and their mean and median are less than half of the sample period. Besides, the survival probability of China's export relationships with countries along the "Belt and Road" is relatively low at the early stage, and exhibits significant negative time dependence and threshold characteristics; Geopolitical risks significantly reduced the survival duration of China's export relationships. Based on the above results, this paper argues that, the risk prevention and control mechanism should be strengthened, and the geopolitical risk in the B&R should be resolved through diversified and multi-faceted governance, and thus promote the sustained and healthy development of China's export relationships.

Key words: the "Belt and Road", Economic and Trade Cooperation, Geopolitical Risk, Export Relationships, Survival Duration, Unimpeded Trade, GPR Index