Risk Assessment and Enlightenment of the External-Debt of the Countries along the

doi:10.16716/j.cnki.65-1030/f.2020.01.006

Abstract

Abstract: The external-debt risks of the countries along the "Belt and Road" have an important impact on the economic and social effects of China OFDI. Selecting data from 31 countries along the "Belt and Road" to build an external-debt risk evaluation index system and employing fuzzy matter-element analysis to comprehensively measure the external-debt risk of countries along the "Belt and Road", this paper analyses the reason of the risks. The results show that the external-debt risks of the countries along the "Belt and Road" are generally on the rise; the external-debt risks of Mongolia, Laos, Sri Lanka, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, and Kyrgyzstan are very high; fiscal deficits, deteriorating terms of trade, and rising international market interest rates are the main factors which lead to high external-debt risk of countries along the "Belt and Road". In order to improve the quality and efficiency of China OFDI in countries along the "Belt and Road", Chinese companies should optimize the spatial layout of direct investment and reduce investment in countries with high foreign debt risks; optimize the investment field, increase investment in non-energy sectors, and promote economic growth and employment in countries along the belt and road; projects should be strictly reviewed before investment, and adopt reasonable financing methods to avoid increasing external-debt risks of countries along the"Belt and Road".

Key words: Silk Road Economy, the Countries along the "Belt and Road", the Scale of Foreign Debts, the Structure of Foreign Debts, the Ability to Repay Foreign Debts, External-debt Risk Assessment, OFDI, Fuzzy Matter-element Analysis

CLC Number:

F811.5

Hu Ying, Liu Yingying. Risk Assessment and Enlightenment of the External-Debt of the Countries along the" Belt and Road"—An Analysis Based on Data from 31 Countries[J]. Finance & Economics of Xinjiang, 2020, (1): 62-71.

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Risk Assessment and Enlightenment of the External-Debt of the Countries along the" Belt and Road"—An Analysis Based on Data from 31 Countries

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